Follow Us
With a monsoon deficit of 13% against the benchmark after the near-close of the three months of the 2026 southwest monsoon season (June-September), overall rainfall is likely to be the lowest since 2009.
The quantum of rainfall and its spatial distribution in September would be crucial for this season’s monsoon performance. With the El Niño phenomenon gathering momentum, all indications are pointing towards ‘deficient’ rainfall, below 90% of the benchmark – long period average (LPA) this season.
Previously, in 2002 (- 20.9%), 2009 (- 18.3%), 2015 (- 12.7%) and 2014 (-10.15), overall rainfall during the monsoon season was in the ‘deficient’ range.
“Due to the impact of El Niño, there has been a consistent all-Indian cumulative rainfall deficit since June. The monsoon recovered a bit in July during active spells but has not really managed to do well and pull the country out of rainfall deficit,” Akshay Deoras, Senior Research Scientist at the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK, told FE. Deoras said the high spatial and temporal variability in terms of east-west regions is likely to continue in early September, following which there are indications of subdued rainfall over various parts of the country.
ALSO READMonsoon Tracker: Delhi-NCR’s rain surplus deepens as Central and Eastern India face heavy-rainfall threat
After scanty rainfall received in June at 36% below the benchmark, July saw revival of monsoon rains at 1% above the LPA, which is within the normal range had given a boost to kharif crop sowing. In August so far, the monsoon has been 14% below the benchmark so far.
Regional Disparities
According to consulting firm ICRA’s assessment, the cumulative kharif sowing is set to decline by 1%- 2% Y-o-Y in 2026 from 112.1 million hectares (Mha) in 2025
“Patchy rainfall across several regions is expected to hit kharif crop yield, while overall rainfall in September would be crucial for the yield of several crops including pulses and oilseeds,” an official said.
In terms of regional distribution, only the central India region, also referred to as the rainfed monsoon core zone, has received ‘normal’ rainfall, just 1.8% below the benchmark. All other regions show a serious rainfall deficiency: northwest (-10.6%), east/north-east (-26.8%), and south peninsular (-22.1%).
Bihar (-42%), Andhra Pradesh (-39%), Punjab (- 34%), Karnataka (-22%), Kerala (-20%) and Rajasthan (- 21%) have received rainfall significantly below the benchmark. Current moderate El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season, IMD said in its latest forecast for the next two weeks.
At present, the total kharif crops – paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane and coarse cereals – sown area has reached 105.6 Mha till August 21, 2026, down by just 1.5% from a year ago. Except for a few pockets of eastern India, sowing activities have been completed.
ALSO READIndia shows 6 signs of growth momentum, but there are 2 big risks
IMD Benchmark Standards
In May, the IMD revised its June-September rainfall projection to 90% of the LPA, from 92% in its April forecast, placing the season in the “below-normal” category. The Met Office also said there is an 84% probability that rainfall during the season will remain in the “deficient to below-normal” range.
The IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90%-95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of LPA is termed ‘deficient’. Rainfall in the range of 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’.
TOPICSMonsoonThis article was first uploaded on August twenty-seven, twenty twenty-six, at nineteen minutes past one in the night. © The Indian Express (P) Ltd