OPEC+’s latest decision to raise oil production by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) is unlikely to bring meaningful relief to global markets as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Russia’s inability to meet higher production targets undermine the alliance’s efforts to boost supply, according to Rystad Energy.
The producer group remains on course to unwind the first tranche of voluntary production cuts by September, but analysts say the market is increasingly facing a gap between announced production targets and actual barrels reaching consumers.
The warning comes at a time when energy markets are grappling with one of the biggest supply disruptions in recent years, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining shut and limiting the movement of crude from the Gulf region, a critical source of global oil supplies.
“With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the issue is not whether OPEC+ raises paper quotas, but whether additional barrels can actually reach the market,” said Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy.
The assessment raises questions over the effectiveness of OPEC+’s current supply strategy. While the alliance continues to increase quotas, physical exports remain constrained, reducing the real-world impact of production hikes.
The challenge is being compounded by Russia, one of the largest members of the producer group.
Under the latest OPEC+ agreement, Russia’s quota rises to around 9.82 million bpd, but the country is currently producing only around 9.2 million bpd, leaving an output gap of roughly 600,000 bpd.
According to Rystad, the shortfall reflects the combined impact of intensifying drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and a longer-term erosion of production capacity that predates the current conflict.
The widening gap between Russia’s assigned quota and actual output could become increasingly visible as OPEC+ continues unwinding supply cuts.
The development also complicates a broader review underway within the alliance.
OPEC+ is currently conducting a capacity assessment that is expected to help determine production baselines for 2027 quotas. However, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and several producers operating below normal levels, accurately assessing sustainable production capacity has become significantly more difficult.
That could make the next round of quota negotiations considerably more sensitive.
While current market attention remains focused on supply disruptions, Rystad warned that the opposite risk may emerge once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
The consultancy estimates the market could face a surplus of as much as 5 million bpd in the months following a reopening, driven by returning OPEC+ supply, stronger US shale production and weaker demand after a prolonged period of elevated prices.
Additional production from the UAE could add further downward pressure if restrictions are relaxed.
Initially, part of the excess supply may be absorbed as countries rebuild strategic petroleum reserves and commercial inventories depleted during the crisis. However, Rystad cautioned that such demand would be temporary.
Once the restocking cycle fades, the underlying oversupply could return, potentially forcing OPEC+ back into production-cut mode.
For the alliance, analysts say the bigger challenge may lie ahead.
Maintaining discipline is relatively straightforward when supply disruptions keep markets tight. The real test will come when exports normalise, inventories rebuild and member countries are once again required to sacrifice market share to stabilise prices.
For now, OPEC+’s latest output increase highlights a growing reality in the global oil market: announced production targets matter little if the barrels cannot physically reach consumers.
TOPICSEnergyfuelOPECStrait of HormuzThis article was first uploaded on June nine, twenty twenty-six, at twenty-seven minutes past five in the evening. © IE Online Media Services (P) Ltd