Bitcoin has surged past the upper limit of its trading range from February to March, briefly reaching $74,000 after crossing the $70,000 mark.
On-chain analytics reveal that Bitcoin has surpassed a significant accumulation zone established between $59,000 and $72,000. Nevertheless, it has recently dipped back below this upper boundary before the daily close is finalized.
Is an Increase to $82K Imminent?
The latest analysis from Glassnode indicates that the UTXO Realized Price Distribution highlights a substantial portion of newly acquired supply within this area. Its clearance has propelled Bitcoin into a relatively low liquidity zone ranging from $72,000 to $82,000. This suggests minimal resistance in the short term due to limited prior accumulation. While this recent breakout establishes a likely short-term trading range, broader market signals indicate that confirmation of a structural change is still pending.
The metric for Percent of Supply in Profit has climbed to approximately 60%, aligning with early recovery stages observed in previous cycles; however, it remains below the long-term average near 75%, which typically signifies stronger bullish market conditions. Concurrently, profits realized by high short-term holders have surged to about $18.4 million per hour—indicating persistent selling pressure that must be managed for prices to remain elevated.
Glassnode noted that sustaining prices above $70,000 while absorbing these profit-taking activities would enhance prospects for further increases toward levels like the True Market Mean around $78,000 and potentially up towards the current range’s ceiling at approximately $82K.
Moreover, off-chain data illustrates improving demand dynamics. For example, allocations for US spot Bitcoin ETFs have rebounded following earlier outflows due to renewed institutional interest. However，CME futures open interest remains subdued—implying that current price advancements are more influenced by spot demand rather than leveraged positions. Historically speaking，this trend correlates with more stable market environments; yet consistent upward movement usually necessitates growth in both capital inflows and derivatives exposure.
A surge in buyer activity was evident through indicators within spot markets as cumulative volume delta across major exchanges shifted from ongoing sell-side pressure toward net buying—with Coinbase flows stabilizing and showing an upward trend.
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Persistent Bearish Sentiments
The derivatives markets show negative perpetual funding rates indicating an abundance of short positions—which have fueled recent rallies through covering those shorts. Options data further reflects a shift towards equilibrium as implied volatility decreased—leading to diminished demand for downside protection alongside gradual increases in call options purchasing.
Additonally，concentrated negative gamma exposure around the level of $75K could continue influencing price movements shortly—and might amplify upward trends via dealer hedging flows。Glassnode added:
This positioning backdrop suggests further upside may be supported in the near term; however,a sustained trend will likely require continued capital inflows along with broader leverage expansion and conviction。