According to a recent analysis by CF Benchmarks, Bitcoin is currently trading at a significant discount compared to global liquidity trends. This situation arises amidst macroeconomic challenges related to energy prices and monetary policy, which complicate the outlook for risk assets and overall economic growth.
The Kraken-owned index provider reported that since mid-2025, the global M2 money supply has increased by approximately 12%, while Bitcoin’s value has decreased by around 35% during the same timeframe.
A model referenced in the report, released on Thursday, suggests that Bitcoin’s “fair value” should be around $136,000. In contrast, its current price hovers near $70,000.
This discrepancy represents one of the largest recorded gaps between Bitcoin and a metric historically regarded as an indicator of global liquidity. Typically, expansions in money supply have influenced risk assets positively; however, Bitcoin often reacts more dramatically than traditional equities.
Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks stated in an email to Decrypt, “The primary takeaway from over ten years of data is that divergences between M2 and Bitcoin have usually been short-lived.”
Analysts point out that U.S. monetary policy plays a crucial role here. The Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet from nearly $9 trillion in 2022 down to about $6.7 trillion while maintaining high interest rates—this keeps financial conditions tight even as liquidity increases elsewhere.
This environment restricts capital inflows into markets and ties Bitcoin more closely with real interest rates and general risk sentiment rather than merely headline money supply growth.
The elephant in the room
Concurrently rising energy costs are straining household budgets significantly.
Economists estimate that since late February alone there has been an increase of 81 cents per gallon for gasoline prices in the U.S., costing households approximately $740 annually—potentially negating much of what would be gained from larger tax refunds this year.
The White House had projected back in January that tax refunds for Americans could rise by an average of $1,000 this winter compared to previous cycles due to President Donald Trump’s Working Families Tax Cuts Act initiatives.
The markets are also wary about possible disruptions within the Strait of Hormuz—a vital channel for global oil supplies—and their consequent inflationary implications.
The combination of elevated interest rates alongside rising oil prices—exacerbated by ongoing tensions between Iran and the U.S.—has troubled markets recently; oil prices surged past $100 per barrel on Thursday before retreating closer to levels around $92 again later on.
.... . . . “An uptick” “in demand through” “the TradFi vehicles” “that helped drive bitcoin “