Adam Back, a renowned cryptographer and frequently mentioned as a potential true identity behind Satoshi Nakamoto, recently drew attention to the Bitcoin price chart extended along the 200-week moving average, which currently exceeds $56,000.
The core of Back’s observation is that the minimum support level for Bitcoin’s value is gradually increasing. This reflects his interpretation of the cryptocurrency’s ongoing long-term upward trend.
However, whether market behavior aligns perfectly with this outlook remains uncertain. At present, Bitcoin is attempting to surpass the $90,000 mark. Meanwhile, resistance around $82,000 has halted two downward corrections; another pullback was stopped near $80,600; and importantly, the deeper support at approximately $74,110 has not been tested since last November’s decline.
This pattern suggests that Bitcoin’s price has established a more solid foundation and is trading within a narrower range than before. Such stability points more toward diminished selling pressure rather than strong bullish momentum driving prices higher.
Summary
The metric highlighted by Back—the 200-week moving average—has historically signaled major cycle lows for Bitcoin over several years. It bottomed out in 2015, again in 2018 and most recently in 2022. Each time prices reached this threshold marked by recovery phases afterward.
With this moving average now positioned above $56K and continuing its ascent steadily upward, it effectively raises the baseline level for this current market cycle compared to earlier periods within the year.
For investors and traders alike, the key takeaway lies in observing how consistently this long-term average climbs higher. This trend implies that significant price drops below it are becoming increasingly unlikely unless there is an unexpected breakdown of overall market structure.