Jameson Lopp, co-founder of the crypto custody firm Casa and a developer, has expressed that quantum computers are not expected to threaten Bitcoin in the foreseeable future.
This statement emerges amid growing discussions about whether advancements in quantum computing might soon jeopardize the cryptographic foundations protecting blockchain networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Diverging Views Among Experts on Quantum Computing’s Threat to Bitcoin
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Lopp emphasized that quantum technology will not break Bitcoin anytime soon.
“No, quantum computers won't break Bitcoin in the near future. We'll continue monitoring their progress… It's wise to hope for the best but prepare for potential challenges,” he wrote.
Lopp’s perspective aligns with many specialists who believe there is no immediate danger posed by quantum machines. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, also stated that short-term risks are essentially nonexistent.
“This scenario is decades away. It remains extremely early days with significant research and development hurdles across all necessary applied physics fields before we even know if scalable solutions are possible. Still, being 'quantum ready' is prudent,” Back commented.
Similarly, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson downplayed current fears regarding quantum threats to blockchains as exaggerated and premature. He acknowledged that while blockchains could eventually adopt quantum-resistant cryptography protocols, such changes would likely reduce efficiency substantially.
On the other hand, some experts warn of an accelerated timeline. David Carvalho from Naoris Protocol cautioned that within 2 to 3 years quantum computers might undermine Bitcoin’s security measures.
Michele Mosca from the University of Waterloo predicted a roughly one-in-seven chance that core public-key cryptography could be broken by 2026.
The forecasting platform Metaculus has also adjusted its estimate for when a quantum computer could factor RSA numbers—from 2052 down to 2034—indicating increased urgency among researchers.
The Quantum Doomsday Clock project presents an even more pressing forecast: it anticipates bitcoin encryption may be compromised as early as March 8th, 2028.
The Challenges Behind Making Bitcoin Resistant to Quantum Attacks
While opinions vary on timing risks posed by advancing technology, there is consensus about one key issue: upgrading systems toward post-quantum security standards would require considerable time and effort. Lopp suggested this transition might take between five and ten years once initiated.
Lopp explained why concerns about quantum computing tend to focus more heavily on cryptocurrencies than traditional financial institutions such as banks:
“Banks can upgrade their infrastructure orders of magnitude faster than decentralized ecosystems like Bitcoin can manage;”
An industry analyst further elaborated why migrating blockchain networks toward post-quantum cryptography poses far greater complexity compared with centralized entities:
“For sectors like banking or internet services where central control exists over software updates and credential management — rolling out new algorithms or revoking old keys happens through coordinated efforts allowing forced user migration when needed — this process is relatively straightforward.”
Bitcoin lacks any central authority capable of enforcing mandatory upgrades across its network participants. Transitioning toward post-quantum signature schemes demands widespread social agreement combined with meticulous technical coordination plus voluntary participation from users worldwide.
Additionally , inactive , lost , or abandoned wallets cannot be updated . Consequently , part of bitcoin ’ s total supply will remain vulnerable indefinitely once effective attacks emerge . Technical limitations complicate matters further .
" ; Most existing post -quantum signature algorithms involve significantly larger key sizes compared with ECDSA . Given bitcoin ’ s constraints around block size limits along with global replication requirements , these changes introduce serious scalability challenges at consensus level . What may represent manageable overheads for bank servers or web connections becomes critical bottlenecks within decentralized blockchain environments , " ; explained analysts .
In essence , while decentralization forms bitcoin ’ s core strength providing resilience against censorship or single points-of-failure , it simultaneously slows down adoption processes requiring network-wide agreement especially concerning fundamental protocol upgrades such as those related to cryptographic methods designed against emerging threats like powerful future technologies including large-scale universal fault-tolerant quantum computers .
The article titled " ; Quantum Computers Unlikely To Threaten Bitcoin In The Near Term " ; originally appeared on BeInCrypto .