Following its peak between $120,000 and $125,000 earlier in October 2025, Bitcoin experienced a decline to the mid-$80,000 range. Currently hovering around $87,700 on the daily chart, this scenario appears to present a straightforward opportunity for investors to secure profits and start the new year with a clean slate.
However, historical data complicates this narrative. Examining the monthly return heat map reveals that January typically yields an average gain of +9.76% and a median increase of +9.54%. February also tends to perform well with an average rise of +14.3%, whereas March often turns negative with a median loss of -2.19%. This pattern indicates that while early-year momentum exists for Bitcoin, it is not consistently reliable.
It’s important to note that January does not always bring positive returns for BTC. For instance, significant drops occurred in January 2015 (-32.1%), 2018 (-28.1%), and 2022 (-16.9%). Therefore, rather than assuming “January always rallies,” investors should be cautious as “January frequently penalizes those who expect an easy exit.”
The end-of-year performance adds further insight: November shows an impressive average gain of +36.6%, but December’s median return dips slightly into negative territory at -2.68%. This suggests many traders who sell late in the year may be reacting to market noise rather than clear signals.
What’s Behind This?
The advice against selling during January isn’t rooted in superstition but rather strategic positioning considerations. Year-end selling usually occurs due to practical reasons; once this supply pressure eases off, prices can rebound swiftly because resistance levels are lighter.
Recent years support this trend—January saw gains of +39.9% in 2023 and +29.6% in 2020 alone! Even at the start of 2025, Bitcoin posted a solid January increase of +9.54% before late sellers dampened enthusiasm.
This history doesn’t guarantee future rallies; however if Bitcoin enters January already below its peak from earlier in 2025 and under psychological thresholds like $90,000 then statistically speaking—the greater risk might lie in waiting too long to sell rather than exiting prematurely.