This week, Bitcoin hit lower targets, sparking questions among traders about whether bulls can maintain the current levels and end the week positively. Meanwhile, altcoins are showing signs of fragility as several major assets remain in a precarious position. In contrast, gold continues its strong upward trend.
The Total3 chart, which tracks the market cap of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin and Ethereum, is still facing challenges. It has yet to display higher highs or lows—an essential indicator for an altcoin recovery.
Analysts Predict a “PUMPtober” Revival
Crypto analyst Ash Crypto suggests that the recent market dip aims to clear out overleveraged positions before an upward surge. He anticipates a rebound for Bitcoin and altcoins between October 15 and 20, leading to what he describes as a significant rally by month-end.
“They want you to think PUMPtober is off the table. When fear peaks, expect a bounce followed by a parabolic Q4 rally,” he stated.
Source: X
This anticipated reversal could trigger an explosive run in Q4 with BTC aiming for $150K-$180K while ETH could surpass $8K-$12K. Altcoins might experience gains ranging from 10x to 50x once their season fully kicks off.
The Four-Year vs. Extended Cycle Discussion
Analyst Lark Davis delves into whether Bitcoin adheres to its historical four-year cycle or has shifted towards an extended one. After previous halvings in 2016 and 2020 took approximately 524 and 548 days respectively for BTC peaks post-halving events suggest it might peak around October 2025—about 536 days after the next halving scheduled in early-2024.
“If new all-time highs occur soon after this week’s performance it supports extending cycles theory,” he noted further adding if substantial new heights happen February/March ’26 then traditional four-year cycle may no longer apply.”
Institutional vs Retail Dynamics Analysis
A stark difference emerges between institutional versus retail participation: Institutions now control roughly around nearly three-point-eight million Bitcoins compared against earlier figures peaking at one-point-three million back during twenty-twenty-one plus just three hundred eighty-seven thousand recorded within two-thousand-seventeen period alone! Wallets holding excess hundred-BTC have also steadily increased since late-twenty-four despite ongoing high trading values exceeding one-hundred-twenty-thousand dollars per coin!
LarkDavis Source:
A different narrative unfolds when examining smaller investors’ activities where addresses containing minimal amounts declined beginning early twenty-four indicating limited engagement amongst them currently involved amidst ongoing rallies observed today! ”Retail isn’t buying this cycle,” Davis remarked predicting gradual upticks until eventual synchronized corrections affecting broader risk-assets markets occurring sometime beyond twenty-six timeframe ahead…
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