Contracts in Bitcoin prediction markets across various platforms are aligning closely around a tight price range for early 2026. Market participants generally assign low chances to significant upward moves, viewing six-figure prices as unlikely events.
Bitcoin’s Most Probable Price in February 2026: Around $65K, According to Prediction Markets
On Polymarket, the most actively traded contract focuses on Bitcoin’s peak price during February 2026, with over $20 million wagered on outcomes. The settlement depends on whether any one-minute BTC/USDT candle on Binance hits or surpasses a specified level within that month.
The implied probabilities from Polymarket concentrate heavily between $60,000 and $65,000. Currently, the contract at $65,000 holds the highest likelihood at 57%, while the $60,000 option stands at 29%. Combined, these two figures represent market consensus for February’s trading range.
Below this band, bearish scenarios have significantly lower odds: hitting $55,000 is priced around 14%, and dropping to $50,000 carries just a 5% chance. Targets ranging from $40,000 to $45,000 collectively receive only about 2%–4%, indicating limited fear of deeper declines.
The probability of prices rising above $85,000 falls sharply. The market assigns an 18% chance for reaching $85K; this drops to roughly 9% at $90K and merely about 4% near the $95K mark. Six-figure targets between$100K and$110K are considered tail risks with implied odds hovering between1%-2%, despite substantial trading activity.
At extreme levels like$120K or higher during February,the likelihood dips below1%. However,millions of dollars remain invested in these contracts,suggesting participation driven more by hedging strategies or bets on asymmetric payoffs rather than mainstream expectations.
A separate Myriad contract tracks whether Bitcoin will achieve a new all-time high before July2026—defined as surpassing$12619963on Binance.The current market assigns approximately14% probabilityto such an event occurring within that timeframe,and86% chanceit won’t set a new record then.
The Myriad contract has lighter volume—around$19 400—compared with Polymarket but reflects similarly cautious sentiment.Resolution here depends on one-minute candle closing prices instead of intraday highs.
Meanwhile,Kalshi markets offer slightly more optimistic views for all of2026.Traders estimate about45%support that Bitcoin will trade above$100 k sometime during the year,total volume near$1.56millionacross related contracts.
As price targets increase,the probabilities decline.Kalshi implies roughly29 %chancefor exceeding110 kand22 %for crossing120 kin2026,this signals skepticism toward very high valuations within that period.
A distinct Kalshi series monitoring when Bitcoin might reach150 kshows expectations pushed further out.The highest probabilityis just6 %for achieving it before June2026,and earlier timeframes carry only2 %-3 %,despite combined volumes exceeding24 million dollars across those contracts.
Taken together,the data indicates traders expect relative stability and consolidation near term,rather than dramatic upward surges.Most view explosive gainsas unlikely tail events rather than baseline forecasts going into next year.
Frequently Asked Questions ❓
What price do prediction markets favor for bitcoin in February 2026?
Most predictions cluster tightly between60 thousandand65 thousanddollars as most probable.
How likely is it according to traders that bitcoin sets a new all-time high before July 2026?
Myriad markets place this probabilityatapproximately14 percent.
Do prediction markets expect bitcoin will hit100 thousanddollarsin 2026?
Kalshi traders assign nearly45 percentchancebitcoin tradesabovethis levelduringtheyear.
What are chances bitcoin reaches150 thousanddollarssoon?
Markets give single-digitpercentoddsbitcoin attains150 kbeforemid-20s.