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Indian exporters frontloaded shipments to the US in September amid the threat of tariffs of up to 100% under the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, pushing exports to the country up 48% year-on-year to $8.02 billion.
The pickup in shipments, which began in July, helped lift India’s exports to the US by 11.11% to $50.81 billion in April-September, following a muted first quarter when shipments declined 0.06% to $25.4 billion.
However, part of September’s sharp growth reflected a favourable base effect. Exports to the US had fallen 12.58% year-on-year to $5.42 billion in September 2025, after Washington’s 50% duties on Indian goods came into force by late August that year.
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“There will be the base effect and front-loading at work in the export growth seen in the US market. “Front-loading is also going on this time in view of the ongoing investigation under Section 301 on excess capacity and the threat of a 100% tariff for Russian oil trade,” Ajay Sahai, director general and CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), said.
The export surge comes amid uncertainty over Washington’s trade policy towards India. The US has launched a Section 301 investigation into policies of key trading partners, including India, that allegedly enable excess manufacturing capacity and hurt American industry. Separately, the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, signed into law by President Donald Trump on September 18, provides for tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying Russian oil or gas, subject to its implementation provisions.
The legislation provides a 30-day window for major buyers of Russian oil, including India, to reduce purchases, seek a national-interest waiver or face potential tariffs. The deadline is approaching, with an announcement from Washington expected on the way forward.
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Meanwhile, rising imports from the US have narrowed India’s merchandise trade surplus with the country. Imports increased 25.98% year-on-year to $32.32 billion in April-September, bringing the surplus down to $18.49 billion from $20.07 billion in the corresponding period of 2025-26. The increase could partly address US concerns over its widening merchandise trade deficit with India.
Petroleum products led the import growth, with shipments rising 209% year-on-year to $4.80 billion in April-August, despite a decline in crude oil imports. Electronics and computer hardware were other growing import categories.
In July, Washington imposed 10% tariffs on India following a separate Section 301 investigation concerning the use of inputs produced with forced labour, replacing temporary tariffs under Section 122 that expired on July 24.
The latest export performance thus reflects both a recovery in shipments and exporters’ efforts to get orders delivered ahead of possible further tariff action. Whether the momentum sustains will depend on Washington’s decisions on the Russia-related sanctions and the outcome of its investigations into India’s trade practices.
TOPICSexportsTrump TariffThis article was first uploaded on October sixteen, twenty twenty-six, at thirty-two minutes past six in the evening. © The Indian Express (P) Ltd