Investors have firmly favored precious metals like gold this year as a safeguard against the possible decline in the value of fiat currencies, leaving bitcoin (BTC) largely overlooked.
Since January 1st, gold has surged nearly 70%, while silver has soared approximately 150%, significantly outperforming bitcoin, which has dropped around 6% during the same period.
Experts link this surge to what is known as the “debasement trade,” an investment approach where investors purchase assets considered reliable stores of value and hold them as fiat money loses worth. This depreciation stems from expansive monetary policies and growing fiscal deficits, eroding purchasing power and pushing asset prices higher.
At the start of the year, proponents of bitcoin made optimistic forecasts based on this debasement theme. However, bitcoin’s upward momentum stalled sharply after surpassing $126,000 in early October and subsequently retreated below $90,000.
Gold’s Unprecedented Rally
The recent performance of gold stands out particularly when viewed through technical analysis lenses, according to insights from The Kobeissi Letter.
The metal has consistently traded above its 200-day simple moving average—a key long-term trend indicator that averages price movements over about nine months—for roughly 550 trading days straight. This achievement ranks as the second-longest streak ever recorded for gold, only behind a roughly 750-session run following the financial crisis in 2008.
Despite these trends favoring gold at present, enthusiasts within the cryptocurrency community remain optimistic about bitcoin’s future prospects. Analysts predict that BTC will eventually catch up with gold next year due to its historical pattern of lagging behind before surging forward.
“Gold tends to lead BTC by around half a year; last summer’s consolidation phase for gold mirrors Bitcoin’s current pause,” explained Lewis Harland from Re7 Capital during an interview with CoinDesk. “The renewed strength in gold reflects market expectations for ongoing currency weakening and fiscal challenges heading into 2026—conditions that have traditionally supported both assets—with Bitcoin typically reacting more forcefully.”
This sentiment is echoed by market participants: data from Polymarket shows traders currently assign a 40% chance that BTC will be next year’s top-performing asset class; meanwhile, gold holds a probability estimate near 33%, followed by equities at about 25%.