As US President Donald Trump meets his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing, the rest of the world is waiting to hear the outcome of the high-stakes summit. While the visit aims to ease trade tensions between the two largest economies, the US-Iran war is likely to dominate the talks, writes Banasree Purkayastha
l Why are Trump and Xi meeting in Beijing?
US PRESIDENT DONALD Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday evening for a three-day state visit to China. This is the first visit to China by a US president in nearly a decade since Trump visited in 2017. Trade, tariffs and Taiwan are on the agenda but it is the US-Iran war that looms over his trip. Trump and Xi’s meeting comes days after Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Beijing, underscoring the ties between the two countries.
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Trump is expected to encourage Xi to push Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as well as to agree to a peace deal. China is Iran’s biggest oil customer and one of the few countries with leverage in Tehran. With no signs of the war — that the US started —ending soon, analysts say Trump comes to Beijing with a weak hand. Influence over Iran may be useful leverage for Beijing in negotiations on trade and Taiwan. While China has called for “comprehensive cessation of hostilities” in West Asia, it has said it “supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security”.
l Is a mega trade deal in the offing?
BOTH COUNTRIES WANT to maintain the truce struck last October under which Trump suspended sky-rocketing tariffs — that at one time had reached 145%—on Chinese goods and Xi relaxed restrictions on rare earths exports. US remains the biggest buyer of Chinese goods, even as China’s global trade surplus last year reached $1.2 trillion, despite the growing tiffs over tariffs. China is set to push for fewer US restrictions on advanced chips and chip-making equipment exports, while the US wants greater access to China’s rare earths and critical minerals.
Trump and Xi are expected to unveil a series of deals on aerospace, agriculture and energy. They will also discuss creating a a US-China board of investment and a US-China board of trade. A sale of 500 Boeing 737 Max jets, one of the biggest orders in its history, is expected to be announced, even as Washington hopes that China will agree to buy more soyabean and beef from the US.
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l Fight for tech supremacy is intensifying
THE AMOUNT OF China’s purchases is likely to be limited by US concessions on tech exports, which in turn are constrained by dynamics in Washington, according to Economist Intelligence Unit China analysts, reported CNBC. The US has been apprehensive about China’s growing tech prowess, especially with the rise of Artificial Intelligence.
Trump has brought along with him a delegation of business and tech leaders, including Elon Musk of Tesla and Tim Cook of Apple, with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang joining the trip at the last minute. “I will be asking President Xi, a leader of extraordinary distinction, to ‘open up’ China so that these brilliant people can work their magic,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, referring to the CEO delegation. While headline-grabbing tech deals may not happen just yet, the CEOs hope to resolve long-standing business issues with China. For instance, Nvidia has struggled to get regulatory permission to sell its powerful H200 artificial intelligence chips there.
l Why agreeing on Taiwan isn’t easy
WHAT TRUMP AND Xi say publicly after the summit, especially on defence and arms sales, will be of special import for Taiwan. Trump has said he would speak to Xi about US arms sales to Taiwan and there are fears that Trump’s desire to strike a deal with Xi could lead to the US president making some concessions on that front. Washington has approved tens of billions of dollars in military sales to Taiwan over the years, including an $11billion package announced last year.
Salvador Santino Regilme, associate professor and programme chair of international relations at Leiden University, told Al Jazeera: What matters is the precise wording. Whether Trump reaffirms support for Taiwan’s defence, whether he sounds ambiguous on arms sales, and whether he gives Xi any rhetorical opening to claim that Washington is restraining Taipei.”
Those wordings will also have a message for China’s push for compliance on contested territory elsewhere, from the border with India to the South China Sea.
l Why the summit matters for India
With both the US and China being India’s biggest trade and geopolitical partners, New Delhi will be keenly watching the outcome of the talks. A solution to the Hormuz blockade would ease India’s energy security problems as most of its oil and gas imports from West Asia passes through this vital chokepoint.
Any trade concessions given by either party will have ramifications for India. For instance, last year, the US imposed tariffs on India, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union but China secured concessions on the strength of its rare earth supplies. Tariff policies or trade arrangements between Washington and Beijing, especially the contours of the potential Board of Trade and the Board of Investment will have a big impact on global manufacturing practices and exports. Washington’s apprehensions regarding China’s growing tech power, has led it to deepen tech alliances with New Delhi, especially in chip manufacturing.
TOPICSDonald TrumpThis article was first uploaded on May fourteen, twenty twenty-six, at two minutes past twelve in the am.