While El Nino continues to negatively impact the southwest monsoon, frequent low-pressure systems (LPSs) over the Bay of Bengal in July helped central India’s rainfed monsoon core zone receive adequate rainfall, thus narrowing the cumulative deficit from 36% in June to 12% as of Monday.
Climate experts, however, said the spatial variability in rainfall has been significant and the cumulative deficit is likely to persist through the end of the season.
“Monsoon rains have been impacted by El Nino, as regional variations in distribution of rains indicate. However, the inter-seasonal variability in July, with several LPSs moving slowly and lasting for longer durations, helped bring adequate rainfall across central India,” Sivananda Pai, deputy director general of meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, told FE.
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Pai said these low-pressure systems cannot be predicted well in advance. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), July saw 24 LPS-affected days against the normal of 14.
Adequate rainfall in central India has also supported sowing of kharif crops, including paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane. The total area under kharif crops has reached 96.79 million hectares (Mha), down just 1.81% from a year ago.
Although the IMD had forecast below-normal rainfall for July, the country received rainfall 1% above the benchmark last month, placing it in the normal range. July accounted for 32% of the total monsoon season rainfall, following a severely deficient June when precipitation was 35.4% below normal.
The Met Department’s May forecast of monsoon-season rainfall for the June-September period at 90% of the long-period average (LPA), with 84% probability of the precipitation being in the ‘deficient to below normal range’, remains unchanged.
Overall, monsoon rainfall between June 1 and August 10 was about 12% below normal, keeping it in the deficient range. Regionally, central India saw precipitation in the normal range, while northwest India (-12%), east and north-east (-26%) and south peninsular India (-18%) remained below normal.
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Bihar (-36%), Punjab (-35%), Andhra Pradesh (-34%), Jharkhand (- 25%) and Uttar Pradesh (-21%) recorded hugely ‘deficient’ rainfall so far this monsoon.
“The cumulative rainfall across India since June remained below the normal level throughout the season, highlighting the presence of rainfall-suppressing factors such as El Nino. Spatial variability in rainfall has also been significant this season,” Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK, said.
The IMD has forecast a fresh LPS to form over the north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts around August 13, which may sustain the monsoon’s current active phase till the third week of August.
Deoras said models from several forecasting agencies indicate drier-than-normal conditions across India in September, driven by El Nimo.
“While El Nino generally reduces southwest monsoon rainfall, it has typically favoured northeast monsoon rainfall over southern India. There are some early indications of a positive impact of El Nino on this year’s northeast monsoon season,” he said.
The IMD has said El Nino could strengthen in September, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may turn positive, potentially offsetting its adverse impact on the monsoon.
TOPICSEl NinoThis article was first uploaded on August ten, twenty twenty-six, at twenty-four minutes past eleven in the night. © The Indian Express (P) Ltd