Vetle Lunde, the Research Director at K33 Research, a firm specializing in cryptocurrency analysis, has released an in-depth report scrutinizing the long-standing assertions regarding “systematic selling at 10:00 AM” within the Bitcoin market.
Lunde’s research involved analyzing over 606,000 minutes of data collected from January 1, 2025, to February 26, 2026. The findings indicate that Bitcoin’s average return at precisely 10:00 AM (ET) ranks among the top quartile for intraday performance.
The study revealed that during this timeframe, Bitcoin’s average minute return was roughly -0.003 basis points; however, at exactly 10:00 AM it rose to about +0.207 basis points. This positions the time slot as the 359th most favorable minute of the day—meaning that approximately three-quarters of all minutes analyzed performed worse than those recorded at this hour. Lunde contended that these results contradict widely held beliefs about a systematic price decline occurring around this time.
The theory surrounding “systematic sell-offs at 10:00 AM” suggests that Bitcoin often experiences drops during this hour due to activities by market makers or ETF transactions. Nevertheless, Lunde emphasized that his extensive dataset effectively challenges and disproves such claims.
In contrast to broader trends observed earlier in his analysis, when focusing on a shorter period from November 1, 2025 to February 26, 2026—the average return for minutes around ten o’clock fell sharply to -1.41 basis points. During these days examined within this narrower scope of time frame made it one of the worst performing periods—ranking as number thirty-five among negative returns and falling into just over two percent of all weakest moments throughout trading hours examined thus far with negative returns appearing on more than half (53.85%) days studied; meanwhile twelve percent had even higher frequencies compared against its own statistics indicating lower performance levels overall compared against others observed previously by Lunde himself which suggested some potential outlier effects but did not provide definitive proof pointing towards any deliberate manipulation efforts taking place here either way.
Moreover examining adjacent windows surrounding ten o’clock yields further insights into performance metrics where averages showed marginal declines (-0.0033%) between five minutes before until five after whereas slight gains (+0 .0017%) occurred across another span starting five before until ten after leading up toward small increases again (+0 .0038%) noted specifically between intervals spanning directly from ten through just past then concluding shortly thereafter following initial opening bell ringing off respective stock exchanges nearby providing contextually relevant backdrop necessary framing discussion adequately without veering too far off course away main focus area being discussed currently overall here today!
Lunde also pointed out how poor-performing minutes cannot simply be attributed solely based upon looking strictly only “round hours.” For instance during same shorter window studied there were several irregular times identified including instances occurring like those seen marked respectively under timestamps noted such as—ten twelve , nine forty-one , seventeen thirteen , etc.—which seem rather indicative instead reflecting general volatility patterns linked directly tied back toward US trading hours rather than suggesting any targeted manipulative behavior aimed specifically targeting certain times alone exclusively throughout whole entire duration assessed thus far so far across wider landscape analyzed overall!
A significant takeaway from Lunde’s findings is how much volatility tends indeed increase substantially whenever US markets open up their doors officially each day moving forward thereafter especially right beforehand prior major macroeconomic announcements take place subsequently resulting peak activity levels reaching highest peaks observed precisely between nine thirty-one through nine thirty-seven ET intervals immediately following commencement official start trading sessions underway representing clear connection linking both BTC microstructure alongside traditional equities markets operating concurrently together side-by-side while interacting fluidly with one another consistently over longer stretches viewed holistically speaking!
In summary conclusion drawn forth by Vetle indicates no substantial evidence exists supporting claims alleging intentional coordinated selling practices executed systematically timed perfectly down specific slots allocated strategically designed meant solely target particular outcomes sought-after desired ends ultimately achieved either way whatsoever!
*This does not constitute investment advice.