According to Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3, a Bitcoin technology firm, Bitcoin ($BTC) appears to be undervalued when compared to gold and the overall global money supply. This discrepancy may indicate a potential price rebound.
Mow highlighted in a post on X that Bitcoin is currently trading between 24% and 66% lower than its expected value relative to both gold’s market capitalization and the global monetary supply, suggesting that gold is currently overvalued.
As of Friday’s close, April delivery futures for gold were priced at $5,247.90; meanwhile, tokenized gold known as PAX Gold USD was being traded at approximately $5,404.14 during this writing.
Additionally, Mow referenced Bitcoin’s Z-score—a statistical measure indicating how closely $BTC‘s price aligns with its historical average. A Z-score of zero signifies alignment with the average price; any score above zero indicates prices are trending higher than normal levels.
The Z score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. Source: TradingView
A negative Z-score indicates that prices are below their historical averages. According to Mow’s analysis, when this metric for the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio falls below -2 it has historically led to significant upward price movements for Bitcoin; currently it stands around -1.24.
Data from TradingView reveals that in November 2022—during the fallout from FTX’s collapse—the metric dipped below -3 which coincided with a subsequent surge in $BTC, rising more than 150% over the following year.
A similar trend occurred during March 2020 amid COVID-19 market turmoil when this indicator also fell beneath -2; at that time $BTC‘s value dropped near $3,
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Could bitcoin plunge down to $50K?
Mow’s perspective contrasts sharply with other analysts who predict continued challenges ahead for cryptocurrencies along with further declines in $BTC‘s valuation due largely due investor apprehension coupled alongside geopolitical uncertainties surrounding recent events in Israel and Gaza.
Certain crypto market experts suggest there might be a downward trajectory toward approximately $50,
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