India’s growing natural resource gap affects the base metals sector, the energy sector, and the emerging areas of critical minerals and rare earths.
According to a recent NITI Aayog report, India’s cumulative demand for copper, a fundamental element of green technologies, will exceed 20 million tonnes (MT) by 2050, up from the current domestic consumption of nearly 1 MT.
Nearly 44% of refined copper usage is currently met through imports, necessitating massive capacity additions across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors.
The government think-tank believes that the demand for copper will be the highest among critical energy transition minerals (CTEMs), and that its dominance will be driven by its widespread applications in solar PV, wind turbines, EV batteries, EV motors, and electrolysers.
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Then of course there is the projected demand from sectors such as construction, power infrastructure, manufacturing, electronics, digitisation, and modern defence technologies, which, according to the Mines Ministry, accounted for around 95% of refined copper demand in FY25.
India’s refined copper usage in FY25 stood at 10 lakhs tonnes, up from 8 lakhs tonnes in the previous fiscal. Meeting the projected demand, Niti Aayog suggests, calls for “substantial investment in domestic mining, processing, and recycling, even in the absence of global market leverage.” However, the domestic industry wants the government to ensure the sector is not affected by unwarranted imports from FTA countries, higher GST, and reduced TC/RC charges to meet the staggering demand.
Global copper resources are mostly found in South America, Africa and Australia. India’s geology offers only a limited scope for large-scale mining, making primary extraction capital-intensive and yielding low returns. India possesses about 16,000 lakh tonne of copper ore resources. Of these, 1,600 lakh tonne are classified as “reserve”, while the remaining are categorised as “remaining resources.”
Bigmint’s Jaiprakash Sahu said, “India’s growing import dependence — now exceeding 55% for refined copper — alongside its transition to a net importer, reinforces copper’s position as a priority critical energy transition mineral. Meeting demand through 2047 will require parallel expansion across smelting capacity, scrap recycling, and downstream value-added manufacturing. With limited domestic mining potential and tightening global concentrate availability, India’s strategy must shift toward supply-chain de-risking through circular recycling, diversified concentrate sourcing, and strengthening mid-stream conversion capabilities.”
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Mid-Stream Opportunity
An industry source said, “The real opportunity to create value is in the mid-stream and downstream stages—where copper is turned into products such as cathodes and then into rods, wires, tubes, and custom shapes. This is where India can progress from just importing raw copper to processing it into high-value industrial products, earning much better margins.”
India’s domestic refined copper production has not kept pace with the increasing demand in recent times. Between FY19 and FY25, domestic refined copper production grew merely by 4% CAGR from 4 lakhs tonnes in FY19 to 6 lakhs tonnes in FY25, ehereas copper demand during the same period grew at 7% CAGR. As a result, there has been a surge in imports of cathodes and semis to fill the demand-supply gap.
Industry sources said that zero-duty imports from the UAE, ASEAN and Japan under FTA arrangements are severely impacting the domestic manufacturing ecosystem and urged the government to levy import duties and impose quantitative restrictions wherever possible.
Smelting Under Stress
Rajib Maitra, Partner and Sector Leader at Deloitte South Asia, said, “The global copper smelting industry is currently under significant stress due to a structural mismatch between smelting capacity and constrained copper concentrate availability. As a result, one of the revenue streams for copper smelters – treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) have sharply declined, with benchmark levels for 2026 expected to be around zero, and spot rates continue to be negative. This is creating viability concerns for smelting and refining operations globally, including those in India.”
Also, a section of recyclers and primary copper producers is bearing the brunt of “price distortion” caused by another section of recyclers. The latter uses domestically procured end-of-life scrap without paying the taxes and sells the final product at a discount.
“This tax avoidance gives some units a direct cost advantage, allowing them to sell finished products at lower prices than compliant businesses, thereby distorting market competition,” said an industry player.
With nearly 60–65% of copper scrap still sourced through unregulated channels, the need for reform is pressing. A rationalised GST structure, coupled with a national scrap-traceability mechanism, would help formalise copper flows without affecting government revenues.
TOPICScopperminingNITI AayogThis article was first uploaded on March twenty-two, twenty twenty-six, at zero minutes past six in the evening.