Bitcoin's Future Outlook: Fidelity's Timmer Identifies $60K Cycle Low While BTC Maintains Above $68,795

Bitcoin is currently trading near $68,795, showing a slight decline over the past 24 hours after encountering resistance around the $69,400 level. This movement follows comments from Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s global macro director, who identified Bitcoin’s recent dip to $60,000 as the bottom of its cycle and anticipates a new bullish phase emerging after some consolidation.

Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer Identifies $60K as Cycle Low

Last week Bitcoin dropped to $60k—exactly within the support zone I predicted months ago when suggesting that another four-year bull cycle had likely ended.

A fall “only” to $60k would be considered shallow for a Bitcoin winter; however, as a commodity currency… pic.twitter.com/aKz2qmGEo3

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) February 13, 2026

Timmer explained that Bitcoin’s retreat to the $60,000 mark aligns with his earlier forecast marking the conclusion of its four-year bull run. While it remains uncertain if this is indeed the absolute low point, he believes it probably is. Following several months of sideways price action or minor fluctuations (“backing and filling”), he expects a fresh cyclical rally to commence.

He emphasized that this relatively modest drop signals maturation in Bitcoin’s market behavior. As institutional adoption grows stronger, volatility tends to decrease and price swings become less extreme. Previously he noted that October’s peak at approximately $125,000 after nearly three years of gains fits well within historical patterns observed in prior four-year cycles.

Timmer also projected bear markets typically last about one year; thus 2026 might serve as an “off year” where prices stabilize between roughly $65,000 and $75,000 before potentially moving higher again based on mathematical cycle harmonics.

Open Interest Rises Amid Renewed Spot Market Activity

$BTC Derivatives Overview (Source: Coinglass)

Data from Coinglass shows open interest in Bitcoin derivatives climbed by 2.09% reaching around $45.36 billion — indicating traders are rebuilding their positions following significant liquidations on February 5th. Meanwhile trading volume fell by about 12.47% down to roughly $55.27 billion; this suggests lower participation but no signs of panic selling.

The spot market saw net inflows totaling approximately $12.90 million on February 14th—a reversal from earlier heavy outflows which had exerted downward pressure on prices during early February.

The long-to-short ratios remain elevated at around 1.59 on Binance and near 1.55 on OKX exchanges respectively — reflecting continued bullish leverage despite an approximate 45% correction since October highs.
Top trader data reveals large accounts hold roughly $184.69 million worth of long positions compared with only about $64.34 million short positions over hourly intervals—signaling confidence among major players expecting recovery.

This combination of rising open interest alongside positive spot inflows generally indicates accumulation rather than distribution phases following sharp corrections like those recently experienced by BTC markets.

Price Consolidation Persists Below Key Moving Averages

$BTC Price Movement (Source: TradingView)

The daily chart reveals that Bitcoin remains below all significant exponential moving averages (EMAs). The current levels stand at approximately:
20-day EMA – $74, 124,
50-day EMA – $81, 594,
100-day EMA – $88, 177,
200-day EMA – $94, 353.

• The Supertrend indicator reads bearish at nearly $79, 990 confirming downward momentum;
• The price consolidates tightly between $68, 000–70, 000;
• $74,&nbsp124 serves as immediate resistance defined by the&nbsp20-day EMA;
• $60,&nbsp000 support was successfully defended during early February dips.

Bitcoin bounced strongly off Timmer’s suggested floor near $60,&nbsp000 gaining more than +14% since then – demonstrating buying demand exists close to these lows validating his bottom call.
However,& nbspthe asset still trades below its short-term average meaning corrective pressures have not fully eased yet.

A daily close above €⑴,124 would flip sentiment towards trend exhaustion signaling potential shift upwards.
Until such breakout occurs though,& nbspbearish structure prevails consistent with ongoing consolidation expected per Timmer’s forecast for several months “background”.

&lt/h2>

&lt/h2>

Hourly Chart Displays Tight Range-Bound Behavior

&amp#36BTC&amp#37 Price Movements (Source: TradingView)&lt/span>