Prominent cryptocurrency expert Benjamin Cowen has recently shared his insights on Bitcoin’s latest surge, indicating that the market is at a pivotal moment. He pointed out that Bitcoin has reached the levels of the “bear market resistance band,” specifically around the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which he believes will play a crucial role in determining future market trends.
After peaking at $78,361, Bitcoin’s price retreated close to the 21-week EMA, currently positioned near $78,415. Cowen remarked that this initial reaction does not necessarily indicate a clear “rejection,” recalling instances from previous years (notably in 2023 and 2024) where significant breakouts occurred weeks after prices surpassed this resistance band.
In his evaluation, Cowen referenced historical patterns, particularly drawing comparisons with Bitcoin’s behavior during U.S. midterm election years. He observed similarities to 2018 when Bitcoin hit its lowest point in April but remained above February’s lows; this could suggest potential short-term strength extending through late April.
Related NewsJUST IN: U.S. President Donald Trump Makes a Statement on the Iran Ceasefire – “The Likelihood of an Extension Is Very Low”
Cowen also mentioned that upcoming decisions from the Federal Reserve and interest rate announcements from Japan could reinforce this “strong stance” narrative within the market.
If Bitcoin successfully breaks past its bear market resistance band, Cowen identifies another significant hurdle ahead—the 200-day moving average. He noted that during previous bear markets (in years like 2014, 2018, and 2022), this level served as an impenetrable barrier; thus maintaining trading above it is essential for transforming any current rally into a sustainable bull run.
Despite recent upward movements in price, Cowen retains his broader perspective on macroeconomic trends. He suggests that this rise may merely represent a “counter-trend rally,” predicting it is quite likely for Bitcoin to decline further later in the year.
The analyst asserts we are currently witnessing cryptocurrencies losing value relative to other asset classes such as stocks, gold commodities and energy markets.
*This should not be considered investment advice.