Bitcoin Price Forecast: Will the $68K Mark Determine Its Next Direction?

The price of Bitcoin ($BTC) hovered around $65,412, according to CryptoQuant data revealing six consecutive months of subdued network activity. Meanwhile, a four-hour range chart identified $66,590 and $68,000 as critical levels that could influence the short-term trend reversal.

Bitcoin’s Network Activity Remains Low for Half a Year, CryptoQuant Reports

Data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin’s on-chain activity has remained at its lowest point for six straight months. Despite this weak participation in the network, the price experienced a volatile pullback heading into early 2026.

Active Addresses Momentum. Source: CryptoQuant

A chart shared by CryptoQuant and analyst @gaah_im titled “Active Addresses Momentum” tracks fluctuations in active addresses over time. This metric stayed below zero from mid-2025 through the most recent update. Red bars denote periods of low engagement while green bars represent stronger user involvement. The white line overlays Bitcoin’s price movement.

The analysis reveals brief spikes in activity that were not sustained; instead, negative momentum deepened into early 2026 with two notable dips following significant price swings. At the right edge of the chart, Bitcoin traded near $68,000 after previously surpassing $100,000 earlier in this cycle.

CryptoQuant compared this current pattern to similar conditions seen in 2024 when an extended period of weak network participation preceded an approximately 30% correction in Bitcoin’s value. However, they emphasized this comparison serves as historical context rather than a prediction.

Bitcoin Approaches Range Lows While Analyst Highlights Key Levels at $66,590 and $68,000

On Binance’s BTCUSDT four-hour chart, Bitcoin tested the lower boundary of its recent trading range as trader Lennaert Snyder noted it was “testing range extremes,” approaching crucial points that may determine its next directional move.

BTCUSDT Four-Hour Range Map. Source: Lennaert Snyder on X

Snyder explained on X (formerly Twitter) that he awaited confirmation via market structure break before entering long positions—specifically looking for reclaiming the swing high at $66,590 on this timeframe. He also pointed out a more significant bullish trigger near $68,000 described as the “range point of control.”

The chart further identifies resistance zones around $71,422 and higher liquidity near $76,971 if prices climb above $68,000 again. According to Snyder’s analysis, surpassing $68,000 would likely ignite long trades targeting these upper levels but could also create potential short opportunities if rejection occurs post-reclaim. 

If prices fail to hold above $66,590 and get rejected, it might prompt shorts aiming for new weekly lows. 

The projected scenarios depicted show one path breaking upward through resistance while another heads downward following unsuccessful reclaim attempts.

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