Investors in cryptocurrency have accused the quantitative trading firm Jane Street of deliberately influencing Bitcoin’s price through a daily, automated selloff coinciding with the opening of US markets. However, market experts and data analyses indicate that this pattern is inconsistent and that no single company has the power to push Bitcoin into a sustained bear market.
These allegations gained traction online shortly after Terraform Labs’ court-appointed administrator filed a lawsuit against Jane Street. The suit accuses the firm of insider trading linked to transactions that exacerbated the collapse of Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin ecosystem in May 2022.
Several observers in the crypto space, including influencer Justin Bechler, suggest that Jane Street’s holdings in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) might conceal a net short position on Bitcoin via hedging strategies not disclosed publicly. Bechler claims Jane Street executes coordinated algorithmic sales every day at 10:00 am Eastern Time to manipulate Bitcoin ($BTC) prices, enabling them to purchase IBIT shares at discounted rates.
“When Jane Street reports owning $790 million worth of IBIT shares, filings reveal nothing about whether these are hedged by put options, offset by short futures contracts, or protected within collars—meaning their actual net exposure could be zero or even negative,” Bechler explained. He further noted that “the real position might be an enormous short disguised as a long one under current disclosure rules.”
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, warned that such activity is not exclusive to any single firm. He explained that acquiring spot assets while selling futures contracts is common among delta-neutral funds aiming for spread capture rather than directional bets on price movements.
The most recent 13-F filing from Jane Street also revealed investments in Strategy and significant stakes in bitcoin mining companies like Bitfarms, Cipher Mining, and Hut 8.
Source: Julio Moreno
The Focus on Daily 10 am Bitcoin Price Drops
The narrative circulating online centers around an alleged pattern where Bitcoin experiences price declines shortly after 10 am ET—a period overlapping with US market openings. Onchain analyst Nonzee shared hourly charts indicating what they claim has been months-long manipulation by Jane Street during this timeframe.
Source: Nonzee
The crypto monitoring account Whale Factor asserted that since early November there has been consistent programmatic pressure causing daily drops between 2% and 3% just minutes after US markets open.
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“Many traders believe Jane Street’s massive $2.5 billion-plus holding in BlackRock’s IBIT drives engineered liquidity sweeps designed to accumulate spot ETFs at discounted prices,” Whale Factor stated on December 9th via X (formerly Twitter).
Source: Whale Factor
Dissenting Views Challenge Manipulation Claims
Maco analyst Alex Krüger challenged these assertions by presenting blockchain data showing cumulative positive returns averaging +0.9% between 10:00 am and 10:30 am ET since January first—contradicting claims of systematic dumping during this window.
“There's widespread talk about daily dumps at exactly ten o’clock AM but my analysis shows otherwise,” Krüger wrote on X Thursday morning. “This so-called ''10 AM dump''' phenomenon aligns more closely with broad risk asset repricing trends following Nasdaq index movements rather than targeted manipulation.”
Source: Alex Krüger
No Single Player Controls Market Direction — Experts Weigh In
A number of analysts emphasize it is improbable for any one entity—even large firms—to dictate outcomes within such an expansive and fragmented global marketplace as Bitcoin’s ecosystem. Nick Puckrin co-founder and lead analyst at Coin Bureau remarked:
” “While it's natural for investors passionate about bitcoin to seek scapegoats amid downturns,the reality behind bitcoin pricing dynamics remains far more complex.”
Puckrin attributed recent downward trends primarily to geopolitical uncertainties,mixed global liquidity environments,and growing competition from rapidly advancing artificial intelligence sectors vying for investor attention.
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