Crypto market analyst Marmot has raised concerns regarding the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price, indicating that its rise above $70,000 serves as a “very, very bad” indicator. He asserts that Bitcoin has not transitioned into a bullish phase and cautions investors against interpreting this rebound as a sign of lasting recovery. According to his technical analysis, Marmot believes that
Bitcoin has yet to find its true bottom
, warning that the leading cryptocurrency may still be poised for another significant decline.
The Dangers of Bitcoin’s Price Surge Above $70,000
Marmot labeled the recent rebound of Bitcoin above $74,000 as a potential trap. In a post on X, he highlighted the precarious nature surrounding $BTC, suggesting that once the upward trend reverses, we could see an even deeper pullback leading to new lows. The analyst pointed out that the spike above $72,000 was not coincidental; rather it was part of an orchestrated whale trap designed to lure retail investors before triggering a larger sell-off.
Marmot cautioned traders against viewing this relief rally as indicative of an impending bull run.
He noted how similar rallies in history have often ensnared traders into poorly timed investments only for them to be subsequently forced out. Additionally, he explained why 90% of $BTC traders typically face significant losses in November 2026 when previous bear market cycles reached their lowest points.
The analyst explained that during bear markets like this one,Bitcoin frequently encounters bull traps, where sudden price increases create false hope among investors about an end to declining trends. This phenomenon tends to incite FOMO (fear of missing out), prompting many individuals to buy into what appears to be a recovery. However,once this occurs , Bitcoin’s value often reverses sharply downward again—typically returning close to pre-rally levels and resulting in substantial liquidations.
Marmot stressed that despite recent price movements showing strength,<span global liquidity is diminishing . Institutions are quietly withdrawing from the market in orderto mitigate risks associated with further declines. With demand weakening and ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting overall sentiment within markets,Marmot believes we are still quite far from identifying Bitcoin’s bear market bottom.
A Timeline and Target for Identifying Bitcoin’s Bottom Price
Marmot referred back through historical cycles during his chart analysis noting how long drawdowns have occurred before reaching bottoms historically with bitcoin trading sideways at times up until 405 days prior hitting rock-bottom back in 2012 . In contrast ,the cycle experienced around 2026 saw prices stabilize after approximately 362 days while finally concluding around early-mid year ’20 after roughly376days downtrend .
Basing his predictions on these past patterns observed during bearish phases ,Marmots estimates suggest capitulation phase could unfold sometime between July-November2026 . His chart indicates potential spikes beyond$78k followed by final pullbacks below$54k which would likely reveal true bottoming level for crypto asset moving forward .
