Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ash Crypto has recently suggested that Bitcoin’s decline to approximately $60,000 in February 2026 marked the lowest point of the current market cycle. He bases this assertion on a recurring pattern observed over the past two cycles.
If his analysis holds true, it indicates that Bitcoin may already be entering an early phase of a significant upward movement.
The 23-Month Pattern Supporting His Claim
Ash Crypto presents a straightforward argument:
“In each cycle, $BTC has achieved a new all-time high ($ATH). The market bottom consistently occurs exactly 23 months after reaching a new $ATH,” he stated on X.
To substantiate his theory, he referenced January 2017 when $BTC hit its all-time high. This was followed by a low point in December 2018, precisely 23 months later.
A similar trend occurred in the subsequent cycle; according to Ash Crypto, $BTC‘s peak was recorded in December 2020 and then fell to its lowest point in November 2022—again after exactly 23 months.
“This time around, Bitcoin reached another all-time high in March 2024. If history repeats itself, we have already seen the bottom occur in February 2026 (after those same 23 months),” concluded Ash Crypto.
This period coincided with Bitcoin hitting around $60,000 before subsequently rising above $70,000 again.
The timing alone could be dismissed as coincidence; however, Ash Crypto pointed out three technical indicators that aligned during this year’s low. The weekly RSI dropped to levels not seen for four years. Additionally, sentiment indices recorded their worst readings ever while Bitcoin retested its previous cycle highs from late-2021.
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“All these factors combined have historically indicated bottoms for Bitcoin,” he remarked. “Perhaps ‘THIS TIME IT’S NOT DIFFERENT.’”
An analysis from Ali Martinez using on-chain data supports this narrative at least partially. It shows that Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio plummeted to -43 before recovering back up towards approximately +20—indicating that much of the selling pressure might have been absorbed by the market already.
Moreover，the proportion of Bitcoin’s realized market cap held by individuals who purchased within just one month has dipped below 7%. In previous cycles，this trend signified retail investors largely exiting while ownership consolidated among stronger hands。
Bears Remain Skeptical
Counters analyst Ted Pillows offers an alternative perspective。He acknowledges some minor recovery but anticipates further declines over longer timeframes。
“That’s often how it works,” he commented.”Temporary strength draws people back into positions only for them eventually becoming exit liquidity.”
Bearing Current Prices：
At present，Bitcoin is trading around $78，500。Ash Crypto identifies two potential scenarios moving forward：A daily close above $80，000 could propel BTC toward prices between $86 ,000 and $90 ,000；alternatively，一 rejection could lead prices back down into ranges between $68 ,000 and $74 ,000。
The recent bounce can be attributed partly due news regarding an extended ceasefire between US-Iran which positively impacted broader markets before fresh tensions halted momentum just shy of hitting $80k mark .
On his part Martinez flagged key level at $73 ，700 ; if maintained road towards achieving price targets exceeding even upwards beyond ￥96 k remains feasible ; failure here would render bullish outlook questionable with discussions returning surrounding possible drop down near levels approaching $55 k once more .
FAQ:
A1 : According To His Analysis Based On Historical Patterns ，He Suggests That After Hitting New All-Time Highs ，The Bottom Of The Cycle Occurs Approximately Every Twenty-Three Months .
<strong Q2 : What technical signals did Ash mention during bitcoin's recent low?
A2 : He Noted That Weekly RSI Dropped To Four-Year Lows And Sentiment Indexes Recorded Their Worst Readings Ever During This Period.
<strong Q3 : How do other analysts view current bitcoin trends?
A3 ：Some Analysts Like Ted Pillows Remain Skeptical And Expect Further Declines Despite Recent Bounces In Price.