According to Bitcoin investor and author Michael Terpin, the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) may reach a low of $57,000 by October 2026. This prediction comes after a notable increase of over 29% since it dipped to around $60,000 in February.
Terpin shared with Cointelegraph that his projection is grounded in the historical average drawdown period, which typically spans about one year following a market cycle peak. This peak was achieved in October 2025 when $BTC soared past its previous all-time high of $126,000.
For the bull market to reignite, Bitcoin’s price must reclaim the significant threshold of $100,000. Terpin indicated that this might happen if prices dip below the crucial support level represented by the 200-week moving average. He elaborated:
“There’s certainly a chance for reaching $100,000 this year; however, it seems unlikely. Achieving this would require robust buying from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) alongside ongoing purchases from Michael Saylor at Strategy and no major liquidations resulting from sudden downturns.”
The forecast suggests that Bitcoin could bottom out near $57,000. Source: TradingView
This outlook emerges as Bitcoin’s current trading price hovers around $77,987 amidst pressures stemming from fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical tensions like the war in Iran—coupled with limited liquidity as US interest rates remain stable.
An Analyst Warns Current Rally May Be Deceptive
Ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday—where an overwhelming majority (99.5%) anticipate no changes to interest rates according to CME FedWatch Tool—analysts are on alert.
The probabilities regarding target rates leading up to April’s FOMC meeting Source: CME
“This Wednesday marks what is likely Jerome Powell’s final FOMC meeting as Fed Chair,” remarked market analyst Nic Puckrin. With Powell’s term concluding next month, many expect him to maintain current rate levels during his last session.
The apparent lack of enthusiasm or engagement among crypto investors during this recent rally signals skepticism about its sustainability; analysts suggest another downward trend may be imminent according to Matthew Hyland’s insights into market sentiment.
“It seems likely that consensus points towards another decline for $BTC, potentially by October,” he noted on Saturday while also mentioning forecasts indicating short-term drops down toward levels around $73,000 per Cointelegraph analysts’ assessments.
If resistance persists at the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), we could see further retracement downwards towards approximately $65,710 based on Rekt Capital’s analysis.
FAQ Section:
- What is Michael Terpin’s prediction for Bitcoin?
- Terpins predicts that Bitcoin could bottom out at around $57K by October 2026 based on historical trends and cycles.
- What needs to happen for a bull market resurgence?
- The price must reclaim above the critical level of $100K while maintaining stability without sharp liquidations.
- Why do some analysts believe current rallies are not sustainable?
- Lackluster investor enthusiasm suggests skepticism regarding long-term viability amidst external economic pressures.
- If resistance continues at EMA levels where might prices fall?
- If resistance holds firm against EMA indicators we may see retracements closer toward values near approximately$65K.