Numerous investors are currently interpreting bitcoin’s trajectory as nearing the end of its current cycle, with many speculating that the fourth quarter might signify this conclusion. Nonetheless, two significant indicators suggest that we may actually be witnessing the early phases of a bull market.
According to Glassnode data, the 200-week moving average (200WMA), which provides a long-term perspective on bitcoin’s price trends and has traditionally shown an upward movement, has recently surpassed $53,000.
At the same time, the realized price—representing the average cost at which all bitcoins were last transacted onchain—has just climbed above this 200-WMA level at $54,000.
A review of past cycles reveals a recurring trend. During bullish periods, it’s common for the realized price to remain above the 200-WMA. Conversely, in bearish markets, it typically falls below this threshold.
For instance, during both 2017 and 2021 bull runs, there was a noticeable increase in realized prices that expanded their lead over the 200-WMA until they eventually dropped beneath it as bear markets commenced.
In contrast to these patterns is what happened during 2022’s downturn when realized prices dipped below this critical moving average but have only recently ascended beyond it again. Historically speaking once sustained above such averages bitcoin tends towards further gains indicating ongoing progress within its bullish phase.