Glassnode, a platform specializing in on-chain analysis, has revealed in its recent publication that the Bitcoin (BTC) market is adjusting after experiencing significant option expirations. The market now appears poised for its next major move.
The report highlights that since May 2025, Bitcoin has consistently stayed above what is termed as the “short-term investor cost floor.” This benchmark acts as a crucial dividing line between ongoing bullish trends and possible bearish outcomes. Nonetheless, experts note that Bitcoin’s price is encountering substantial resistance due to a dense supply zone.
Long-term investors have reduced their selling pressure while ETF inflows are picking up again, signaling stability on the demand side of the market. Despite this, indicators like the Fear and Greed Index and RVT show a shift from “excessive greed” to more “neutral and fear” levels among investors. This change suggests an increased focus on securing profits and decreased risk tolerance.
In terms of options trading, after last week’s unprecedented expiration event, open interest is beginning to realign itself. This shift reduces volatility caused by hedging activities and opens up opportunities for new positions to influence price dynamics. Although overall volatility has diminished somewhat, the curve still displays contango characteristics with long-term expectations remaining robust within 39-43% range.
Fund flow data points towards moderate upward interest; however, traders are adopting cautious optimism through strategies like risk-reversal trades and option combinations. The balance of dealer gamma positions helps mitigate abrupt volatility resulting from hedging actions.
Consequently Glassnode concludes that while current conditions suggest neutrality with potential for growth ahead there remain no clear indicators pointing towards any imminent strong directional movement just yet.*This does not constitute investment advice.*