Mike McGlone, an analyst from Bloomberg, has released a significant evaluation regarding Bitcoin’s performance in relation to conventional financial markets.
The analysis highlights that since 2021, both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin have shown comparable performance trends; however, Bitcoin’s annual volatility has been roughly three times greater. McGlone interprets this as an indication that the so-called “golden age” of cryptocurrency may be coming to a close.
Currently, the ratio of Bitcoin to the S&P 500 (Bitcoin/SPX) stands at approximately 11x. The analyst suggests that this ratio could exceed the previous high of 14x observed following the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. This implies that there may still be strong periods ahead for Bitcoin.
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Conversely, McGlone pointed out that despite a significant increase in the US money supply over recent years and market capitalization reaching levels equivalent to 2.4 times GDP—amongst the highest since 1928—Bitcoin has not capitalized on this growth effectively. This suggests that it is now more influenced by fundamental economic principles and could face challenges due to rising competition within its market space.
The analyst also indicated that $75,000 represents a crucial benchmark for Bitcoin by 2026. He believes maintaining above this threshold will be vital for market sentiment, particularly if US stock markets do not achieve new highs.
*This is not investment advice.