Jurrien Timmer, the Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments, has reaffirmed his belief that Bitcoin has reached its cyclical low.
Recently, Timmer took to the X social media platform to assure investors that the $60,000 mark continues to serve as a strong support level for this digital currency.
“Bitcoin is still on a quest for its bottom, and I maintain that $60k is a significant level to watch,” he stated while sharing an updated chart. “We might dip below it at some point; however, considering the power law support line and the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio, I believe this price should function as a solid floor.”
Understanding Bitcoin’s Power Law
To substantiate his claim regarding the $60,000 threshold, Timmer heavily references an extensive chart known as “Bitcoin’s Power Law.”
This model employs a logarithmic scale to depict Bitcoin’s price journey from 2009 through forecasts extending into 2029. It illustrates how cryptocurrency evolves naturally through various macroeconomic cycles.
The chart delineates three main paths: a green resistance line indicating historical peaks during bull markets; a dotted blue trendline signifying fair value; and an orange support line marking absolute cyclical lows.
After reaching its latest cycle peak of $122,765, Bitcoin experienced significant downward correction. Nevertheless, according to Timmer’s power law framework, current cyclical support lies between $52,792 and $66,942—with the pivotal figure of $60k right in between these bounds.
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The lower section reveals two distinct oscillators: one showing how much Bitcoin’s price deviates from its power law trendline (represented by pink bars), and another reflecting the 52-week Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (depicted by blue bars).
At present levels indicated by pink bars show that Bitcoin sits at a negative deviation of 45% from its fair value trendline. Additionally,
the blue Z-score bars have plummeted down to negative 100%. Historically,
a bear market cycle concludes when both oscillators reach extreme lows based on cryptocurrency performance metrics.
A “Shallow” Crypto Winter Ahead
In mid-February 2026,
when Bitcoin first dropped into
the vicinity of$60K,Timmer confidently asserted that
the four-year bull market cycle had concluded.
The subsequent crypto winter was expected
to be surprisingly “shallow.”
In previous cycles,the asset would experience devastating drawdowns up to80%. However,the current floor remains significantly elevated due largely
to increased institutional participation made possible by spot ETF launches.