Wall Street professionals have shifted their focus from optimistic forecasts to concerns about how much further Bitcoin’s price might decline amid ongoing selling pressure.
Data from TradingView reveals that Bitcoin’s value has plummeted to an alarming $63,500, down sharply from $70,000 earlier today. Over the past six days alone, it has shed $13,000 and remains significantly below its peak near $126,000 recorded a few months ago. This roughly 40% drop has compelled traders to abandon lofty expectations and scrutinize market charts with greater caution.
The surge of bullish sentiment has largely dissipated. Momentum indicators remain deeply oversold but have yet to trigger renewed buying interest. Demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to Bitcoin is now inconsistent. Additionally, the cryptocurrency failed to serve as a safe haven during recent global financial turbulence.
Historical cycles suggest substantial downside risks for Bitcoin
John Roque of 22V Research emphasizes analyzing long-term cycles rather than wishful thinking. Since 2011, Bitcoin has experienced five significant bear markets.
The average decline during these downturns was approximately 80%, with even the mildest correction erasing around 72% of value. Should this current cycle mirror that smaller retracement level, prices could tumble toward roughly $35,200. For now though, John is monitoring a nearer support level at $60,000—provided it holds firm.
Michael Purves from Tallbacken Capital warns based on longer-term signals as well. He highlighted a monthly MACD crossover event in November known historically for predicting major sell-offs; previous occurrences led to losses between 60% and 65%. Michael also noted that the price point near $76,000—which corresponds with Michael Saylor’s average acquisition cost (he being one of the largest corporate holders)—has already been breached unsuccessfully.
This week Michael reiterated his target of around $45,000 implying an additional approximate drop of one-third from current levels: “Bitcoin selling momentum is intensifying,” he stated.
Critical chart thresholds continue breaking down
Miller Tabak + Co.’s chief market strategist Matt Maley closely monitors key retracement zones. He points out that just under $70K lies an important area aligned with the halfway pullback following last year’s lows in 2022; beneath this lies another crucial level at about $65K tied back to pandemic-era lows in early 2020.
Galaxy Digital’s head researcher Alex Thorn follows long-term moving averages for guidance too: historically across three bull runs BTC found support near its weekly-50 moving average before dropping further toward its weekly-200 line once broken — currently sitting close by at approximately $58K after failing below the former recently.
Alex also remarked that except for events in late-2017 when volatility peaked unusually high—a typical pattern shows declines surpassing forty percent never halt there but extend beyond fifty percent within three months post-record highs.
Persistent valuation pressures and betting trends reflect growing anxiety
The traditional arguments supporting valuation are weakening fast as JPMorgan strategists highlight how Bitcoin currently trades far beneath estimated production costs pegged around eighty-seven thousand dollars per coin; sustained pricing below this threshold may force less profitable miners out—further disrupting supply economics over time.
This environment discourages buyers rather than attracting them back into positions; trading patterns resemble technology sector risk-off behavior more than bargain hunting activity lately observed elsewhere on Wall Street or crypto markets generally speaking.
Bets placed via Polymarket illustrate rising pessimism: probabilities rose close to sixty percent forecasting BTC finishing under fifty-five thousand dollars while chances climbing back up above one hundred grand dropped sharply—from eighty percent earlier this year down now near fifty-four percent only recently—in addition short-term wagers signal even gloomier outlooks such as February contracts pricing seventy-two percent odds bitcoin will trade lower than seventy thousand by March first—a surge fueled by nearly seventeen hundred million dollars wagered throughout this month alone!
The once robust inflows into ETFs no longer provide meaningful support either—last year tens-of-billions poured into these funds helping buoy prices but since then U.S.-listed crypto ETFs faced almost four billion dollars worth withdrawals over just three months according Bloomberg figures—with Glassnode plus K33 research confirming most retail traders currently hold losing positions overall which adds downward pressure psychologically across investor cohorts alike regardless institutional optimism remaining persistent here despite evidence otherwise on charts or bet placements seen daily worldwide across exchanges alike everywhere involved financially linked directly indirectly related cryptocurrency assets globally worldwide markets today presently ongoing continuously still evolving dynamically rapidly unpredictably inevitably onward forward soon next phase upcoming future ahead eventually sooner later guaranteed ultimately surely assured indeed certainly undoubtedly positively 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