Bitcoin commenced a pivotal week with U.S. spot ETF inflows slightly surpassing last year’s figures. At the same time, BTC remained just below the convergence of its 50-week moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA), setting the stage for either a near-term breakout or another downturn.
U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflows Slightly Outpace Last Year as Early 2026 Trends Mirror Historical Patterns
This year, inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have totaled approximately 3,800 BTC, edging past the roughly 3,500 BTC recorded during the same timeframe in 2025, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s data. The cumulative inflow chart reveals that early 2026 is tracking just above last year’s trajectory at this point on the calendar.
Bitcoin Net Cumulative Inflows to US Spot ETFs by Year. Source: CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju
The data also aligns with established seasonal trends; January typically experiences moderate ETF inflows while more substantial accumulation tends to occur later in Q1. Historically, significant waves of capital entering these funds emerge between February and April rather than right at January’s start.
This yearly comparison indicates that despite an increase from one year to the next, early 2026 remains consistent with previous patterns overall. Consequently, it suggests that a more pronounced phase of ETF-driven demand may still be forthcoming as Q1 progresses based on prior cycle behaviors.
Bitcoin Approaches Crucial Test Near Its 50-Week Moving Average Cluster
On another front, Bitcoin faces an important technical juncture as prices hover just beneath its combined 50-week MA and EMA cluster—a key zone highlighted by analyst Jelle (CryptoJelleNL). TradingView charts show BTC consolidating after retreating from recent highs and trading around mid-$90K levels at snapshot time.
Bitcoin 50 Week MA EMA Cluster Chart. Source: CryptoJelleNL
This moving average cluster represents a critical decision area historically influencing medium-term trend directionality. A sustained break above this range would indicate renewed strength following recent corrections and reinforce the broader uptrend initiated in late 2023. Conversely, repeated inability to surpass this resistance could signal ongoing uncertainty and elevate risks of deeper price consolidation.
The weekly price action confirms Bitcoin remains supported within its longer-term ascending structure despite short-term volatility; however, since this MA/EMA band lies immediately overhead—the upcoming sessions are crucial for determining whether buyers can reclaim momentum or sellers maintain pressure near resistance levels.