Over 69.5% of rural households expect their income to increase in the next financial year, according to a bi-monthly survey conducted by the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard) in March.
This represents the lowest level of people expecting their income to rise in the coming year since the survey titled ‘Rural Economic Conditions and Sentiments’ commenced, in September 2024. A year ago, 72.2% of households expected their income to rise, while in November 2025, 75.9% households, the highest in the series, expected their income to rise.
Geopolitical Shadow
The survey stated that “rural household sentiments may have been partly impacted by the perceptions about the expected impact of the conflict in West Asia that started on February 28, 2026.”
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The percentage of households expecting a decrease in income next year fell to 4.6% in March 2026, the lowest level recorded. A year ago, 7.5% of rural households reported a fall in income.
For the next quarter, the share of households anticipating an improvement in income and employment declined to the lowest levels, relative to all previous rounds of the survey conducted so far.
“More strikingly, 53.3 % of the households expect no change in their employment prospects during the next one quarter, which is the highest level since the inception of the survey,” it stated.
Decelerating Momentum
The survey noted that recent data also suggested some loss of growth momentum in the rural areas.
“As per the second advance estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) (with 2022-23 as the new base), real GVA growth in the agriculture and allied sector moderated to 2.4% in 2025-26, from 4.9% in 2024-25, and the deceleration in nominal GVA growth in the sector was even sharper to 0.6% in 2025-26, from 9.0% in 2024-25,” according to the survey conducted during the late February and early March 2026.
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“NielsenIQ quarterly data on sales volume growth of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) also pointed to moderation in rural areas in Q3 of 2025-26,” it noted.
Average inflation expectations (mean value) over the next quarter fell for the first time to below 3%, the lowest since the inception of this survey.
“The percentage of households expecting inflation to remain below 5% over the next one quarter jumped above 90%, which is the highest since the survey started in September 2024,” it noted.
Over 51% of the respondents reported relying exclusively on formal sources of credit. This share has dropped since the November 2025 (58.3%) round of the survey.
“Among households that access only informal credit, however, about two thirds of them seem to get it from friends and relatives,” it noted.
TOPICSNABARDThis article was first uploaded on April eighteen, twenty twenty-six, at twenty-two minutes past twelve in the am.