Monthly return statistics from Coinglass indicate that 2026 is shaping up to be an exceptionally bearish year for Bitcoin, the foremost cryptocurrency.
For the first time in its 17-year existence, Bitcoin appears poised to end both January and February with losses.
While Bitcoin has previously experienced “crypto winters,” it has never started a calendar year with consecutive monthly declines—until now.
The Unusual “Double Decline”
After a strong start in early January 2026, where Bitcoin soared past $97,000, it ultimately closed the month down by 10.17%.
The downturn continued into February as prices plummeted to $60,000. Despite some recovery later in the month, Bitcoin still faces a projected loss of approximately 12.12% for February.
Historically, investors have tended to buy during February to counteract any January downturns:
- In 2018’s bear market: January saw a drop of 25.41%, followed by a modest rebound of 0.47% in February.
- In 2022: After falling by 16.68% in January, Bitcoin climbed back up by about 12.21% during February.
- In early years like 2015: A sharp decline of over one-third (33.05%) occurred in January but was met with an impressive surge of roughly18.43% the next month.
A Potential March Milestone
This ongoing negative trend has analysts concerned about setting new records for sustained losses within this asset class.
The market is currently experiencing its fifth consecutive month of decline; if March closes negatively as well, it would mark six straight months down—a record-breaking streak never before seen since Bitcoin’s inception.
The only comparable period was during the notorious crash throughout much of2018 when five months fell consecutively but not six months running yet .
An Unprecedented Downturn Driven By Unique Factors
This extraordinary slump stems from several distinctive market dynamics absent from prior cycles or crashes .
According to findings publishedby10x Research ,a significant Hong Kong hedge fund’s forced liquidation triggeredthe dramatic fallfromaround$90Kto$60K .
Themarket’s inabilitytohandle such liquidity shockshaskeptprices depressedthroughoutJanuaryandFebruary .
Additionally,fearsaboutthe solvencyofmajor holdershave intensifiedasBitcoin dipped belowcritical support levels.Strategy—the world’s largest corporate holder—felt compelledtopubliclyconfirmit couldsurviveprice dropsdown toa lowas$8Kwithoutdefaulting on debts.This public discussionof”extreme downside” scenarioshasonlyaddedtothe prevailing uneaseamonginvestors .