India’s wholesale price inflation rose to a 38-month high of 3.88% (year-on-year) in March (provisional), up from 2.13% in February, primarily due to a sharp increase in the prices of crude petroleum and natural gas, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Wednesday. The March WPI print reflects the impact of surging global energy prices amid the West Asia crisis.
Energy and Primary Articles
Primary articles (weight: 22.62%) saw inflation rise to 6.36% in March. Within this category, the crude petroleum inflation surged 51.57%. Fuel and power inflation turned positive at 1.05% in March after remaining in negative territory for nearly a year.
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation has been on a rising trend for the last five months. It increased from -1.02% in October to -0.13% in November, turned positive at 0.96% in December, and accelerated further to 1.68% in January and then rose to 2.13% in February. For context, WPI inflation stood at 2.25% in March 2025.
ALSO READGovt’s urges states to refrain from giving bonuses over MSP for paddy & wheat to the farmers
Gaura Sen Gupta, Chief Economist at IDFC First Bank, said the rise in WPI inflation was led by a surge in fuel prices, with consolidated fuel inflation rising to 6.2% in March from -3.6% in February. She added that second-round impacts remain minimal for now, with non-food manufacturing inflation — or core WPI inflation — largely stable at 3.7% in March compared to 3.3% in February.
Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist at ICRA Ltd, said crude petroleum and natural gas, along with fuel and power, together accounted for 150 basis points of the 175-basis-point uptick in the headline print in March relative to February.
Manufactured products (weight: 64.23%) recorded an inflation rate of 3.39% in March, up from 2.92% in February. Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, noted that higher input costs have contributed to the increase in prices of manufactured products. Non-food articles inflation accelerated to 11.50% in March from 8.80% in February. Within this segment, oilseeds saw prices rise 22.81%.
Manufacturing Costs
Food articles inflation eased to 1.90% in March from 2.19% in February. Vegetable inflation declined to 1.45% (year-on-year) from 4.73% in February, while fruit inflation stood at 2.11%. Cereals inflation remained in negative territory at -2.51%.
The WPI Food Index (weight: 24.38%), which comprises food articles from the primary group and food products from manufactured products, remained unchanged at 1.85% in March.
Retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 3.40% in March, according to data released by the National Statistics Office on Wednesday. The uptick was driven by higher food and fuel prices as well as precious metals such as gold and silver jewellery.
Sabnavis said the rising trend in WPI was on expected lines and is likely to climb further in the coming months due to both base effects and price increases across segments. “For FY26, the WPI inflation rate would be in the region of 5%, given the present tendencies combined with possibly some monsoon deficiencies which can push up prices of food products,” he said.
ALSO READImported inflation rises, diverges widely among states
Agrawal said the adverse impact of the surge in global energy prices, along with elevated shipping and freight costs and higher input prices, is expected to continue weighing on the landed cost of imports, thereby exerting upward pressure on the WPI print for April. ICRA expects WPI inflation to rise further to 4.8% in April.
TOPICSinflationThis article was first uploaded on April fifteen, twenty twenty-six, at thirty-two minutes past five in the evening.