Fred Krueger, a seasoned Wall Street expert and mathematician, asserts that Bitcoin’s bear markets arise from just two primary causes. The first is a decline in global liquidity, often triggered by Federal Reserve tightening measures. The second stems from forced liquidation events tied specifically to Bitcoin-related shocks, such as incidents involving Mt. Gox, miners, or fraudulent activities.
Krueger supports his claim with data analysis and dismisses other factors as mere distractions. In trading terms, a “bear market” is characterized by an asset experiencing a price drop of 20% or more, signaling prolonged downward momentum.
“Bitcoin bear markets occur for exactly two reasons:
1. Negative shifts in global liquidity (Fed/dollar tightening)
2. Forced sell-offs caused by Bitcoin-specific crises (Mt. Gox collapse, miner issues, fraud)
Everything else should be considered noise.
Let's dive into the numbers together: 1/”
— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) December 17, 2025
He details several historical episodes when Bitcoin plunged into bear territory and identifies their underlying triggers.
In 2011, Bitcoin’s value plummeted from $32 down to $2—a staggering decline of approximately 93%. This crash coincided with the conclusion of quantitative easing policies coupled with dollar tightening efforts by central banks. During this same timeframe, equity markets quietly slipped into bearish conditions as well.
The period between 2013 and 2015 saw another significant downturn where BTC dropped nearly 85%, falling from around $1,100 to about $200 following the catastrophic failure of Mt. Gox which led to massive forced selling pressure across the market.
The years spanning late-2017 through early-2018 marked yet another steep correction when prices tumbled roughly 84%, descending from near $20K all the way down to approximately $3K amid rising Fed interest rates and quantitative tightening measures globally; simultaneously ICO leverage unwound violently while dollar liquidity peaked worldwide.
A rapid sell-off occurred in March of 2020 when Bitcoin fell roughly sixty percent—from about $9K down close to $3.8K—in just days amidst widespread margin calls internationally alongside acute dollar shortages affecting financial systems everywhere.
The most recent major slump happened between late-2021 through mid-2022 during which BTC lost around seventy-seven percent off its peak near seventy thousand dollars dropping below sixteen thousand dollars amid aggressive monetary policy hikes unseen for four decades combined with cascading failures within crypto firms like Terra (LUNA), Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Celsius Network & FTX causing forced liquidations on an unprecedented scale across cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide.
No Exceptions?
Krueger points out some notable exceptions: namely the minor retracement in early-to-mid-2019 which was merely a failed rally rather than true bear market conditions; China’s mining ban during 2021 that acted more like a correction instead of resetting overall cycles; plus recent declines spanning from late-2023 through mid-2025 where neither negative liquidity shocks nor large-scale forced sales were evident.
Currently extending its downward trend initiated back in October—with successive lower peaks—Bitcoin recently rose modestly by over three percent within twenty-four hours reaching approximately ninety thousand fifteen dollars at press time but remains almost twenty-nine percent below its all-time high above one hundred twenty-six thousand reached earlier that fall after having dipped near eighty thousand toward November end.