“We have just concluded a deal with the country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive oil reserves. We are in the process of choosing the oil company that will lead this partnership. Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling oil to India some day!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
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Trump’s move
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler said that the move reflects a strategic geopolitical play by Washington to strengthen engagement with Islamabad, likely aimed at counterbalancing India’s continued oil trade with Russia.
For India, however, the practical implications are negligible in the near to medium term, experts believe.
Currently, Pakistan has no infrastructure to export oil, let alone to India, and bilateral energy trade between the two countries is politically unviable under current conditions.
“The announcement raises no immediate threat to India’s energy security, but it does reinforce growing Western discomfort with India’s oil ties to Moscow, potentially increasing diplomatic pressure and reputation risks,” Ritolia said.
From a long-term perspective, the move could signify Washington’s intent to create alternate regional energy corridors—but these would take years to materialise and are unlikely to shift India’s oil import strategy materially unless combined with hard sanctions.
Oil production and imports
As per data provided by Kpler, Pakistan’s current oil production and import profile highlights its high dependence on external sources. The country produces about 75,000 barrels per day of crude.
Pakistan imports around 130-140 kbd of crude oil to meet domestic demand, with a heavy reliance on Middle Eastern suppliers including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and occasionally, Kuwait and Qatar.
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According to data from a 2015 study by the US Energy Information Administration, Pakistan has 586 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of risked shale gas while the risked, technically recoverable shale gas resource in the neighboring country is estimated at 105 Tcf.
In addition, the agency estimate risked shale oil in-place for Pakistan of 227 billion barrels. The risked, technically recoverable shale oil resource is estimated at 9.1 billion barrels for Pakistan.
In Pakistan, the shale gas and oil assessment is restricted to the really extensive Central and Southern Indus basins, together called the Lower Indus Basin.