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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce its key policy decisions today. The bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting comes against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict, which has led to a surge in crude oil prices as the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s key oil supply routes, faces disruptions. But why is the conflict involving Iran important for India’s central bank meeting?
Key challenges for RBI
Crude oil prices, which touched $120 per barrel, have forced India to increase fuel prices after four years. Along with the hike in petrol and diesel prices, El Niño is also seen as a key risk to inflation.
Economists at HSBC expect India’s retail inflation to remain above 6%, beyond the RBI’s comfort zone, for two to three quarters starting September 2026.
So, will the RBI hike rates this time? According to economists, the central bank may choose to pause and assess the situation. “RBI to stay on hold, given inflation remains below target,” HSBC noted.
RBI MPC April meet- Recap
The RBI, in its first meeting of FY27, decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retained its “neutral” stance. At the time of the previous policy meeting in April, when the Iran-US conflict had intensified, the central bank had assumed an average crude oil price of $85 per barrel for FY27 and $75 per barrel for the following year.
RBI MPC June 2026 Meeting LIVE Updates: Follow for Latest Announcement on Repo Rate, Loan interest, Growth projection and Middle East War Impact
Live Updates 09:01 (IST) 5 Jun 2026
RBI MPC June 2026 Meeting LIVE Updates: April 2026 meeting recap (Part-2)
Repo rate: Unchanged at 5.25%
Stance: ‘Neutral’
Standing Deposit Facility (SDF): 5% (Unchanged)
Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) & Bank Rate: 5.5% (Unchanged)
Inflation projections
FY27: 4.6%
Q1 FY27: 4%
Q2FY27: 4.4%
GDP projections
FY27: 6.9%
Q1 FY27: 6.8% Vs 6.9% earlier
Q2FY27: 6.7% Vs 7.0% earlier
08:48 (IST) 5 Jun 2026
RBI MPC June 2026 Meeting LIVE Updates: April 2026 meeting recap (Part-1)
The RBI, in its first meeting of FY27, decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retained its “neutral” stance. At that time, the Iran-US conflict had just intensified in late February. The central bank had assumed an average crude oil price of $85 per barrel for FY27 and $75 per barrel for the following year.
08:37 (IST) 5 Jun 2026 RBI MPC June 2026 Meeting LIVE Updates: MPC meeting schedule for FY27
This is the second RBI MPC meeting of FY27. The RBI is scheduled to meet six times, every two months, in FY27. The first RBI MPC meeting was held on April 6, 7 & 8. After this, the next MPC meeting will be held on August 3, 4, and 5.
Here is the full schedule released by the RBI.
08:08 (IST) 5 Jun 2026 RBI MPC June 2026 Meeting LIVE Updates: IDFC First Bank expects RBI to stay cautious
According to IDFC First Bank, “The June policy will take place against the backdrop of inflation and growth concerns. The
West Asia crisis seems no closer to a resolution, and global crude oil prices remain elevated.”
Accosding to them, “A rate hike at this juncture isn’t warranted, as inflation remains within the target band (2% to 6%). Moreover, in the coming quarters, the impact on domestic growth is expected to
become more visible as higher energy prices affect both corporate margins and consumer demand.”
They pointed out that “The overall tone of the policy is expected to remain cautious, with the RBI reiterating its willingness to act if there is a generalization of price pressures.”
08:07 (IST) 5 Jun 2026
RBI MPC June Meeting Live Updates: Emkay Global says MPC to hold rates
“We expect the MPC to hold rates steady this week, while signalling readiness to respond should inflation risks intensify, and second-round pressures begin to emerge,” said Emkay Global.
While the percolation of the energy shock to the real sector is still unfolding, the RBI is likely to flag a cloudy Brent outlook amid a large drawdown in energy inventories and lingering geopolitical risks. This, in conjunction with the rising risk of El Niño, could lead the RBI to raise its FY27 inflation forecast, while adding downside risks to growth.
Importantly, given the recent INR weakness, the RBI is likely to reiterate the clear delineation between monetary and FX policy under the inflation-targeting regime.
07:38 (IST) 5 Jun 2026
RBI MPC June Meeting Live Updates: HSBC says repo rate to remain unchanged
“We believe it’s a close call, but the repo rate may be left unchanged at 5.25%, since CPI inflation remains below target so far, financial conditions are tightening anyway, and the RBI may not want to give the impression that it is using rate hikes for FX defence,” said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist and Strategist, ASEAN Economist at HSBC.
If it makes its oil price scenario of $95 a barrel in FY27 as its base case, its inflation forecast will rise from 4.6% to 5%, adding a hawkish touch to the policy without rate action. Eventually, if El Niño sets in, we think inflation could cross 6% for two to three quarters starting in September.
“We forecast two rate hikes starting in Q4FY26. We also forecast a below-consensus GDP growth of 6% in FY27, which may tie the RBI’s hands from tightening more,” she added.
07:20 (IST) 5 Jun 2026
RBI MPC June Meeting Live Updates: Welcome to this live blog
Greetings! The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision on policy rates at 10:00 am today. Stay tuned to this space at financialexpress.com for detailed coverage, key expectations, and market reactions to the RBI’s decision.
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