Raoul Pal, a prominent global macro investor and former executive at Goldman Sachs, has speculated that the much-anticipated crypto bull run in 2025 might not occur as expected.
Pal mentioned that Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle could have transitioned into a five-year cycle due to broader economic influences. He anticipates the next significant peak to happen in the second quarter of 2026.
Contrary to widespread belief, Pal argues that Bitcoin’s price dynamics are primarily influenced by global economic trends rather than its halving events. He attributes this extended cycle largely to changes in the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Purchasing Managers Index, which reflects U.S. business activity.
The insights from Pal include:
Debt Maturity Extension: The average maturity of U.S. debt was extended from four years to five between 2021 and 2022, effectively delaying the business cycle by one year.
ISM and Economic Trends: Analysts observe that cryptocurrency prices tend to align with movements in the ISM index. A score below 50 signals contraction while above indicates growth. Since peaking in 2021, ISM has remained under 50 for an unusually prolonged period.
This five-year pattern driven by debt maturity adjustments leads Pal to forecast a shift in both ISM and Bitcoin peaks towards Q2 of 2026.
“The current state shows ISM above 50 without substantial economic growth,” stated Pal. “The global economy hasn’t entered full expansion mode yet, mirrored by Bitcoin’s performance.”
*This is not financial advice.