Bitcoin’s implied volatility has fallen to its lowest level since 2023.
According to on-chain analysts in a Wednesday research report, the direction of Bitcoin’s price will now depend on the future accumulation of open interest.
MVRV Ratio Suggests a ‘Wait-and-See’ Approach
Analyst ‘XWIN Research Japan’ pointed out that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is at a neutral position of around 2.1. An MVRV of 2.1 indicates that investors are neither seeing major losses nor excessive profits.
This price level is unlikely to trigger a wave of panic selling or natural profit-taking. The analyst explained that in such periods, a “wait-and-see” attitude tends to dominate the market.
Bitcoin: MVRV Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
This quiet sentiment is further supported by the continued decline in the total balance of Bitcoin held on exchanges, which suggests a weakening of selling pressure. Historically, a decrease in exchange holdings has been a prelude to a supply shortage when demand suddenly surges. XWIN Research Japan suggests that the market may now be experiencing the “calm before the storm.”
Open Interest: The Key to the Next Move
Another analyst, ‘Axel Adler Jr’, that the recent sharp price drop caused Bitcoin’s open interest to fall by 16%. This suggests that leverage is now at a low level following a recent deleveraging of long positions.
Bitcoin Open Interest Pressure Score. Source: CryptoQuant
Axel Adler Jr argues that the future price path of Bitcoin depends on which direction open interest (OI) begins to accumulate. If long positions increase below a resistance level, the risk of another leverage-driven drop increases. Conversely, if short positions increase during a downturn, the probability of an upward move via a short squeeze rises.
The analyst believes a clear directional signal will emerge when the risk of leverage accumulation/pressure rises above 40% or when it drops to a 10% leverage depletion level, signaling a potential reversal.
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