For the first time in a long period, the Bitcoin community is confronting an issue unrelated to ETF flows or the U.S.-China trade tensions. Instead, it revolves around fundamental mathematical challenges within the network itself.
Charles Edwards, who leads Capriole Investments, has been raising concerns that quantum computers might require only about 700 effective qubits to compromise Bitcoin’s elliptic curve signatures. If these machines emerge in 2-3 years as he anticipates, it could leave the entire cryptocurrency infrastructure vulnerable unless swift action is taken.
“We may only need 700 qubits to break Bitcoin! That’s just 2-3 years away people. No one knows the exact number, but the threat is real and getting closer every day. Fix Bitcoin in 2026!”
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) October 14, 2025
The urgency of this warning lies not just in its simplicity but also its rapid timeline. Research referenced by Edwards and others indicates that between approximately 700 and 2,300 logical qubits could execute Shor’s algorithm at a scale necessary to derive private keys from public ones.
Major players like Google, IBM, and Chinese state laboratories are racing towards achieving this capability with substantial financial backing, suggesting that significant breakthroughs may occur not in the distant future of the 2040s but rather by late this decade.
“Q-Day” for Bitcoin
The term “Q-Day” refers to when such advancements become feasible. On Q-Day, all previously exposed public keys become potential targets for exploitation. The hidden danger extends further — hackers can store data now with plans to decrypt it later once technology permits.
Edwards warns: resolve Bitcoin’s vulnerabilities by 2026 or abandon hopes of million-dollar valuations altogether. While markets can manage fluctuations and miners adapt to halvings, mathematics remains uncompromising — if quantum computing surpasses current security measures there will be no reversing course – a divide will form between those who adapted promptly versus those left behind.