Power and Policy: Redefining Bitcoin\’s Script Beyond the Four-Year Cycle

byUS_admin

Experts are increasingly skeptical about the viability of the cryptocurrency market’s traditional 4-year bull cycle.

In a recent podcast, an analyst highlighted Bitcoin’s distinctive behavior in 2025 and noted how shifts in the broader financial landscape have influenced crypto trends.

Related: Is the Traditional Bitcoin Cycle Over? Liquidity Now Dominates Crypto

The Resilience of September Gains

The analyst acknowledged potential changes in crypto market dynamics but suggested that Bitcoin might still achieve its customary year-end rally if September ends positively. According to Coinglass data, as of September 24, 2025, Bitcoin has achieved a profit margin of 4.18%, trading at $113,060.

A profitable September often sets a bullish tone for subsequent months. With just under a week left in this month, it seems likely that Bitcoin will close on an upward trend.

An examination of historical quarterly returns shows that when Q3 is profitable for Bitcoin, it often leads to substantial gains in Q4. For example, after earning a modest profit of 0.96% in Q3 2024, Bitcoin surged by an impressive 47.73% during Q4.

The Impact of External Factors on Bitcoin

Analysts observing changes within the cryptocurrency sphere suggest these developments could disrupt its historical patterns. Traditionally peaking by year’s end before entering a bear phase by 2026 may no longer hold true due to financial sector evolutions prompting analysts to predict extended bull cycles instead.

Michael Novogratz from Galaxy Digital pointed out central banks’ increasing autonomy as pivotal factors altering finance markets’ dynamics—potentially affecting future responses from cryptocurrencies too; notably mentioning Trump’s next Federal Reserve chairman choice could initiate another mega-cycle even amidst typical slowdown periods for cryptos like now!

Novogratz believes political environments significantly influence cryptocurrencies’ evolution complicating industry efforts maintaining past trends/cycles.
Related: Bitcoin $200K Ethereum $10K Solana $1K XRP $7 – Analyst’s Super Cycle Targets
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