The price of Bitcoin has remained relatively stable over the last 24 hours, hovering around $68,000, which indicates a persistent state of uncertainty. The overall trend for the past week shows a slight downward movement, suggesting that there is no significant bullish momentum at play. However, one prediction market presents a more hopeful outlook.
According to Polymarket, the most popular outcome for February is that Bitcoin will surpass $75,000 with a probability of 17%. This bet has gained traction as we approach the end of the month. Nonetheless, various factors including market structure and whale activity indicate that this optimistic scenario may not reflect reality.
Prediction Markets Lean Towards $75K — Yet Bearish Signals Persist
Data from prediction markets reveals that ‘above $75K’ remains the favored target for February despite diminishing sentiment. Bets on Polymarket have accumulated over $88 million in volume with substantial liquidity available.
Nevertheless, confidence in reaching this target has waned significantly; probabilities have dropped by more than 50% recently.
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Biggest Polymarket Number For $BTC: Polymarket
The next likely outcome suggests Bitcoin could drop below $60K with a probability of 12%. This divergence in expectations highlights an increasing divide among traders: while some remain hopeful for upward movement, many are bracing themselves for potential declines.
Key $BTC Price Levels: Polymarket
This growing caution aligns closely with Bitcoin’s technical indicators.
A daily chart analysis shows that Bitcoin created lower highs between November 15 and February 16. This pattern indicates failure to fully recover during its recent rally attempts.
In contrast to this trend, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which gauges momentum strength, recorded higher highs during this same timeframe.
Bearish Divergence: TradingView
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This situation creates what is known as hidden bearish divergence since Bitcoin was already trending downwards. Such patterns typically indicate continuation rather than reversal towards bullish trends—suggesting ongoing selling pressure despite temporary improvements in momentum.
Soon after this divergence emerged,Bitcoin experienced nearly a 6% correction. As long as these signals persist,the chances of hitting the predicted market goal at $75K appear limited.
Long-Term Holders Are Hesitant To Sell But Not Buying Yet
The behavior exhibited by long-term holders provides insight into why some optimism persists within prediction markets even amid rising risks . These investors tend to hold their Bitcoins longer than one year ,and their trading habits often dictate whether prices will surge or decline significantly .
On February fifth ,long-term holders decreased their holdings by244919$ BTC (30-day rolling change) ,indicating extreme selling pressure .ByFebruary twenty-first ,this figure improved slightlyto81019$ BTC .This represents roughly67 %lessened selling activity.
Long-Term Holders: Glassnode
This sharp reductionin sell-offs contributes positivelytowards stabilizingBitcoin’spriceand explainswhy certain traders still harbor hopesfor upwardmovement.
However,long-term holders remain net sellers overall ;they haven’t transitionedinto accumulation mode yet.Their activities show improvement but lackthe robust buying support necessaryto propelBitcoin towardsnew peaks.
This results ina neutral balance whereBitcoin might avoid immediate collapse but lacksstrength neededfor any significant breakout approaching$75000.
The Behavior Of Whales Is Divided
Whale positioning further illustrates prevailing uncertainties within themarkets
The largest whales holdingbetween100k-1M$ BTC , increasedtheirholdingsfrom676540$ BTC to690000$ BTC .That representsan accumulationof approximately13460$ B TC , signaling cautiousbuying behavior.
<PHowever,s mallerwhalesholdingbetween10k-100k$ B TC, reducedtheirholdingsfrom2270000$ B TC‘ totwo milliontwo hundred sixty thousand(“$B TC”)which meansaround10 k were soldduringthesameperiod .
This conflictingbehavior reflects alackof unified convictiondespite thenetbalance tilting slightlytowardsaccumulation.Some whalesare preparingfor reboundwhileothersremain defensive.
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PPredictionmarketsmayoverestimateprobabilitiesassociatedwithbreakouts toward75000whileunderestimatingriskslinkedcontinuationorcorrectionprocessesthatlieahead.ThepostPol ym arkethinksBitcoincouldreach$750001nextweekbutchartsdisagreeappearedfirstonBeInCrypto.