Congress is calling for a Polymarket investigation after at least 50 newly created accounts placed bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the minutes before President Trump announced it on social media on April 9.
The prediction market platform Polymarket is at the center of a congressional firestorm after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. At least 50 newly created accounts placed bets on the outcome in the hours and minutes before President Trump posted about the deal, and most made no other bets before or since.
What Happened on Polymarket Before Trump’s Announcement
According to NPR, at least 50 new accounts placed substantial bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the hours and minutes before President Trump posted the deal on social media. The accounts had no prior betting history and made no other trades, raising immediate suspicion of insider activity.
Rep. Ritchie Torres sent a letter to the CFTC demanding a formal investigation. Sen. Richard Blumenthal went further, calling Polymarket “an illicit market to sell and exploit national security secrets unlike any in history.”
A Pattern Polymarket Cannot Escape
This is not the first time suspicious betting has preceded a major geopolitical event. As crypto.news reported, six Polymarket accounts were previously accused of using insider information to profit from the timing of earlier US strikes on Iran, earning roughly $1 million and triggering the so-called DEATH BETS Act from Senator Adam Schiff.
Analytics firm Bubblemaps had flagged newly created wallets placing timely bets just hours before those strikes commenced. The pattern has now repeated with greater speed: the latest bets were placed in the minutes before the announcement, not just hours.
Regulatory and Legal Exposure
The CFTC issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets in March 2026, with the comment window set to close on April 30. More than 10 anti-prediction market bills have been introduced in Congress since January.
As crypto.news noted, six Democratic senators previously urged the CFTC to ban contracts that resolve on or correlate to an individual’s death. Polymarket, which operates outside US jurisdiction and requires only a crypto wallet to trade, has not commented on the latest congressional demands.