“On the export side, India’s product flows should remain firm. European buyers may accelerate purchases of Indian gasoil and jet fuel through Q4, anticipating the January 2026 sanctions, while Middle Eastern refinery maintenance (Oct/Nov) echoes the stockpiling trend seen ahead of the February 2023 EU ban on Russian products,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modelling at Kpler.
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Kpler noted that Russian refinery outages and new export restrictions (partial diesel ban; gasoline ban extensions) constrained product outflows in late September from Russia.
“India is stepping up its exports to Latin America, and we see that as a prominent market , especially for Indian refiners,” Ritolia said.
Private refineries drive exports amid global supply shifts
Of the total exports, the country’s privately owned refineries cumulatively exported 1.3 million barrels per day of refined oil products. Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar refinery exported 1.2 mbd of petroleum products during September, up from 12% from August. Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery however exported 134,000 barrels per day (bpd) of petroleum products during September, down from 149,000 bpd exported in August amid ongoing international sanctions.
The country’s exports of petroleum products declined 13% to $15.8 billion during April-August in 2025-26, as per data from Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.
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India’s consumption of petroleum products during the first five months of FY26 remained muted at 99.7 million tonnes from last year. For FY26, the country has projected its domestic petroleum product demand to reach a record 252.9 million tonnes.