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“So far in August, Russian crude imports into India have stayed relatively steady. But that’s less a sign of defiance and more about timing—most of these cargoes were likely locked in weeks earlier, in June or July, well before any policy shifts came into play. If refiners do start to adjust their buying behavior in response to sanctions talk, we probably won’t see it reflected in the data until September or October arrivals,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.
Diversification While Keeping Discounts
While cargo tracking data may suggest ongoing inflows or short-term volatility, these movements need to be viewed in the context of commercial timelines and procurement cycles, Kpler said.
Iraq emerged as the second largest importer of oil at 714,000 bpd, down 21% from July followed by UAE at 694,000 bpd and Saudi Arabia at 558,000 bpd. Imports from UAE surged 55% from last month while that from Saudi Arabia, declined by 20%.
Private refiners including Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy imported 1.56 million barrels per day of oil in August. While RIL’s oil purchases increased by 2.4% this month to 1.34 million bpd, Nayara’s fell by 35% from July. Public refiners cumulatively imported 2.78 million bpd of oil in August.
Refiners Balance Risk and Security
Looking at the latest numbers by Kpler, Russian crude loadings to India are currently tracking about 40% lower month-on-month for August, at around ~1,050 kbd. However, this could still change, Kpler pointed out. “Several vessels are heading toward Port Said, Egypt, which typically indicates they will transit the Suez Canal. In the past, we’ve seen such ships update their final destinations while en route. All Russian flows to India in July passed through the Suez, so it remains a key transit route,” Ritolia said.
Cargoes loaded in August are expected to discharge in India during September and October. “We should get a clearer picture over the next week as vessels enter the Red Sea and beyond. It’s still too early to confirm a trend—re-routing and destination updates in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in the coming days will provide better clarity,” Kpler noted.
As of August 26, there has been a notable increase in cargoes that have sailed from Russian ports without a declared discharge destination. Vessel tracking data shows that many of these tankers discharged their previous two to three cargoes at Indian refineries, suggesting India remains a strong potential outlet. “However, it is also possible that some of these barrels could be diverted to other Asian buyers who continue to take Russian crude,” Ritolia said.
India’s state-owned refiners are back in the Urals market, snapping up September- and October-loading cargoes. Kpler said that Indian refiners had been leveraging geopolitical tensions to pressure Russian sellers into lowering prices, and now, with prices aligned to their expectations, buying activity has picked up again.
Urals is currently trading at roughly -$3/bbl against Dated Brent on a delivered basis in India, widening from the $1.5–$2/bbl discount seen in late July.
State-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp has said that it expects Russian crude to form 35% of its total imports for the remaining year of FY26 as long as there are no new sanctions on Russian oil. Indian Oil too has said that it has continued to buy Russian oil in this quarter depending upon the economics.
While there’s no official directive from the Indian government to cut Russian volumes, Indian refiners are actively exploring alternatives—not because they’re walking away from Russian barrels, but because they want to hedge against potential disruptions, as per Kpler.
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With US tariffs now kicking in, India is unlikely to abruptly pivot away from Russian crude, which still accounts for nearly 40% of its imports, but Kpler does expect India to be more focused on diversification. “India will balance affordability and energy security,” it said.
On margins, Russian crude remains the cheapest option in the basket, and without a formal directive from Delhi, no refinery is likely to leave even a $1/bbl discount on the table, Ritolia said.
Buying from the US, West Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East is not a pivot, but building flexibility to hedge against supply loss with energy security as the prime goal.
This marks a subtle shift in strategy: from chasing margins to managing risks—especially around logistics, payments, and longer-term supply security. Indian refiners already source 60–65% of their crude from non-Russian suppliers.