The progress of the southwest monsoon has been sluggish so far with cumulative rainfall until June 14 being just 28.4% below the benchmark longer period average (LPA) for the period. This is in the ‘deficient’ range, according to the India Meteorological Department’s criteria.
This follows the late arrival of monsoon over Kerala on June 5 against the usual date of June 1.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday expressed concern over the impact deficient rains would have on farmers’ income as the IMD has officially forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026. “Of course, we have enough buffer stocks. Since last year we’ve maintained it, so there shouldn’t be a food shortage.
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But for farmers, it’ll have an impact because this year his income will be stressed out,” Sitharaman said at an event. She also pointed to the challenge of securing fertilisers for farmers in the face of supply disruptions due to the West Asia war and resultant price fluctuations
According to the IMD, cumulative rainfall during June 1 – June 14 was 40.2 millimeters (mm) against the LPA of 56.1 mm. In terms of monthly rainfall, the IMD has forecast “below normal rainfall” at less than 92% of LPA in June.
This marks the first year since 2023 that seasonal rainfall is expected to fall below the long-period average (LPA).
“There’s an increasing probability that June will end with below-average rainfall in the country, with huge rainfall deficits in states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat in particular,” Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist at the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, the UK, told FE.
Deoras said “there are signs of the monsoon reviving after 20 June. We can therefore expect rains to increase over peninsular India and the monsoon to advance into more parts of eastern India and some parts of central India by June 25,”. However, it is unlikely to reach Delhi-NCR by 25 June, as there does not seem to be a robust revival phase of the monsoon.
IMD’s previous projections
IMD on June 4th had Thursday announced the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala coast after its forecast of an “early onset” on May 26 failed to materialise. So far the monsoon has covered Kerala and parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar.
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The met department last month downgraded its forecast of “below normal” southwest monsoon rainfall for June-September this year to 90% of LPA, down from 92% as stated last month, with a high 84% chance that the rains will fall in the “deficient to below normal” range.
The met department on Monday said that southwest monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, some parts of Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar.
“Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during the next six to seven days,” the met department stated.
TOPICSECONOMYNirmala SitharamanThis article was first uploaded on June fifteen, twenty twenty-six, at forty-two minutes past ten in the night. © IE Online Media Services (P) Ltd