The progress of the southwest monsoon remained sluggish until Wednesday, with cumulative rainfall being just 37.9% below the benchmark longer period average (LPA) for the period. This is deep in the ‘deficient’ range. In terms of regional distribution, all regions except the north-west—which has received 3% above-benchmark rainfall this season—show a serious rainfall deficiency: east/north-east (-44%), central India (-19%), and south peninsular (-19%).
According to the IMD, cumulative rainfall during June 1-17 was 46.2 millimeters (mm) against the LPA of 74.2 mm. In terms of monthly rainfall, the IMD has forecast “below normal rainfall” at less than 92% of LPA in June.
Regional Deficits
Early sowing of kharif crops including rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane and coarse cereals has been sluggish as a result, with a total sown area of 8.46 million hectares (mha) till June 12, a 3.44% decline year-on-year. Kharif crops were sown in 113.4 mha last year, while the normal sown area or the five-year average, was 110.4 mha.
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After being stuck for several days following a delayed onset on June 5, the southwest monsoon is likely to revive in the next couple of days, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday.
Atmospheric Shifts
“Conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar, and some parts of Chhattisgarh during the next 4-5 days,” the met department said in a statement. The met department also forecast Isolated to heavy rainfall over northeast India, West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar during the week.
“The monsoon shows some sign of revival after June 20, causing some increase in rains in peninsular India. It is likely to advance into parts of eastern and central India,” Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist at the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, the UK, told FE.
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The met department last month downgraded its forecast of “below normal” southwest monsoon rainfall for June-September this year to 90% of LPA, down from 92% as stated last month, with a high 84% chance that the rains will fall in the “deficient to below normal” range.
TOPICSKharif cropsThis article was first uploaded on June seventeen, twenty twenty-six, at forty-three minutes past eleven in the night. © The Indian Express (P) Ltd