According to Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, Bitcoin has the potential to soar to $1 million per coin if it secures a larger portion of the global store-of-value market, which is currently led by gold and government bonds.
In a recent report, Hougan emphasized that Bitcoin’s long-term growth is less influenced by short-term market fluctuations and more dependent on its ability to capture wealth preservation assets over time.
“The idea of reaching one million dollars may seem outrageous,” stated Hougan. “It suggests that Bitcoin would need to increase 14 times from its current valuation.”
He highlighted several supporting factors for this prediction, including the significant expansion of the global store-of-value market—comprising gold, government bonds, and other defensive investments—which has surged from approximately $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion today. Currently, Bitcoin accounts for only about 4% of this market in terms of value.
If Bitcoin were able to acquire around half of this market under existing conditions, its price could potentially reach that coveted $1 million mark within roughly ten years. Furthermore, should the overall store-of-value sector continue growing at its current pace, Bitcoin would require an even smaller share to achieve such a valuation.
The Fascination with a Million-Dollar Price Tag
The forecast predicting a price point of $1 million has become increasingly prevalent within the cryptocurrency community. Recently Eric Trump reaffirmed his belief in reaching that milestone for $BTC. In August last year, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong suggested that we might see such prices by 2030.
Jack Dorsey—who led X (formerly Twitter) until 2021 and co-founded payment company Block (previously Square)—believes it could happen within five years. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes anticipates it as early as 2028 while Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest forecasts up to $3.8 million by decade’s end; Bernstein projects similar figures with predictions pointing towards achieving $1 million by 2033.
This raises an interesting question: why has this specific target gained traction as a benchmark for Bitcoin? CoinDesk consulted various analysts on their perspectives.
Mati Greenspan—a market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics—explained: “It serves as an effective headline shorthand suggesting that Bitcoin could compete with gold as a viable store-of-value asset; what matters more is not just hitting exact numbers but rather how much global wealth can be captured.”
Jason Fernandes—a fellow analyst and co-founder at AdLunam—views this milestone primarily through psychological lenses rather than precise valuations; he sees it reflecting confidence in bitcoin’s potential dominance in value storage discussions.
Nonetheless he also acknowledges marketing influences behind these narratives: “Some aspects are promotional since round figures resonate well among investors,” he noted while asserting there remains substantive reasoning beyond mere hype driving these expectations.
“Many investors tend toward making ‘static denominator’ errors when evaluating bitcoin against today’s stores instead considering future growth possibilities,” Fernandes remarked further emphasizing his viewpoint on adoption trends shaping values over time.
The Core Question Is Institutional Adoption...
An Uncertain Timeline Ahead
A number ()of analysts who shared insights with CoinDesk indicated they find Hougan’s projections plausible regarding long-term outcomes though most perceive them framed around decade-scale adoption stories instead near-term forecasts.
The ongoing geopolitical tensions have strengthened support for cryptocurrencies like bitcoin during uncertain periods when investors seek neutral stores capable safeguarding their assets alongside traditional commodities like gold.
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