Garrett Jin, a prominent cryptocurrency whale, recently shared an in-depth analysis on social media where he challenged the prevailing “bear market” narrative surrounding Bitcoin.
Jin criticized analysts who have been likening Bitcoin’s recent price behavior to the market conditions seen in 2022, emphasizing that such comparisons lack validity when viewed through a long-term lens.
He explained that at the start of 2022, global capital was primarily focused on minimizing risk, with Bitcoin being sold off aggressively during a tightening monetary cycle. In contrast, Jin pointed out that today’s macroeconomic climate is shifting in the opposite direction. He highlighted that the US liquidity index has broken through both short-term and long-term downward trends simultaneously, signaling the emergence of a new upward trend.
From a technical standpoint, Jin observed that Bitcoin formed an “M-top” pattern on its weekly chart between 2021 and 2022 which could have triggered extended bearish pressure. However, he stressed that current market structures differ significantly. Despite what appears to be a breakdown from an ascending weekly channel recently, this might actually represent a “bear trap,” with prices likely to rebound back into this channel. Furthermore, he argued that strong consolidation within the $80,850 to $62,000 range indicates greater potential for upward movement than downside risk for those holding long positions.
Jin outlined three critical criteria necessary for confirming a structural bear market: first, either another inflation shock or geopolitical crisis comparable to those experienced in 2022 must occur; second, central banks need to resume raising interest rates or continue shrinking their balance sheets; third, Bitcoin’s price must fall permanently below $80,850. Without these factors aligning simultaneously, he suggested labeling current conditions as bear-market territory is more speculative than analytical.
A key distinction emphasized by Jin concerns investor composition. He noted how in 2022, a “crypto-specific” bear phase was largely driven by retail investors employing high leverage.
Today, , however, the landscape has matured considerably with institutional players dominating activity. the present environment features locked supply levels, persistent underlying demand, profound volatility concentrated among institutions.&nbps;n
Looking ahead,&nbpsome experts like Jin anticipate a fundamentally transformed bitcoin ecosystem by early 2026 compared to what was witnessed just two years ago.
This analysis does not constitute financial advice.