The price of Bitcoin (BTC) at $92,898.43 continues to be influenced by a blend of broad economic trends and specific market events as we approach 2026.
According to Jim Ferraioli, who leads crypto research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, Bitcoin’s trajectory is driven by three major long-term elements alongside seven short-term factors.
The enduring influences include the global M2 money supply, Bitcoin’s inherently disinflationary issuance schedule, and its growing adoption worldwide. On the other hand, short-term impacts arise from variables such as market risk appetite, prevailing interest rates, strength of the U.S. dollar, seasonal patterns, excess liquidity from central banks, availability within large Bitcoin wallets, and financial contagion risks.
As 2026 kicks off, many of these short-run conditions seem favorable for Bitcoin. Ferraioli points out that credit spreads remain narrow while much speculative derivative exposure—which contributed to last year’s steep downturn—has been largely eliminated.
He explains that a “risk-on” sentiment in equity markets tends to benefit cryptocurrencies since they are considered high-risk assets.
Monetary policy also appears poised to support BTC prices further. “We anticipate both interest rates and the dollar will decline throughout this year,” says Ferraioli. & “Liquidity conditions are improving with quantitative tightening concluded and balance sheet expansion resuming.”
Nonetheless,& certain challenges persist. Adoption growth might decelerate during early 2026 following volatility late last year but could rebound if regulatory frameworks become clearer.& “The enactment of legislation like the Clarity Act could boost institutional investor participation significantly,” he notes.
An additional factor is Bitcoin’s halving cycle: historically,the third year after a halving event has tended to underperform.
“Since many investors monitor this cycle closely,it may exert downward pressure on prices,” he warns.
Historically since 2017,BTC has averaged approximately a 70% gain from its yearly lows when smoothing out volatility effects.Although expectations point toward positive returns in 2026,Ferraioli believes gains will likely fall below this historical benchmark.
Moreover,Ferraioli highlights an evolving relationship between bitcoin&s movement relative to traditional financial assets.He predicts reduced correlation with broader asset classes despite continued strong ties with megacap AI stocks:
“While BTC remains linked closely with large AI-focused equities,the connection with general stock indices has weakened over time.”