Kalshi has opened an investigation into suspicious trades betting on President Donald Trump’s selection of Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary, The Wall Street Journal reported Oct. 9, citing a spokeswoman for the prediction-market exchange.
The Journal highlighted a roughly $19 wager placed around 10:43 p.m. ET Thursday and two wagers of about $74 and $80 placed around 1:41 p.m. ET Friday. Those trades preceded news reports of Zacharia’s selection around 2 p.m. Friday and carried expected gross payouts of roughly $1,900 to $4,000 each, according to the newspaper.
Kalshi’s public market record lists the Zacharia contract as finalized with a Yes result and a $1-per-contract settlement at 4:35 p.m. ET Friday. That establishes the contract’s outcome, but not whether accounts under investigation can withdraw their proceeds.
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Zacharia had traded at an implied probability of about 1% in the days before the news, the Journal reported. The Kalshi spokeswoman confirmed that the company was probing trades predicting her selection but declined to comment further. An investigation is not a finding that any trader used inside information.
Settlement Is Not Withdrawal
Kalshi’s exchange rulebook separates settlement from access to funds. Rule 6.4 permits withdrawal requests to be suspended or denied when Kalshi or its clearinghouse determines that the funds are relevant to a pending investigation.
The exchange’s published insider-trading policy says accounts flagged for potential insider trading are frozen, preventing withdrawals until an investigation is completed. That is its general policy; whether particular accounts in the press secretary investigation face those restrictions remains unclear. Its rulebook also allows fines, recovery of profits and suspension or revocation of trading privileges following disciplinary proceedings or settlements.
The inquiry follows earlier scrutiny of political betting on the platform. In June, The Defiant covered reported DOJ and Commodity Futures Trading Commission investigations into George Santos’s Kalshi trades, citing NPR.
The CFTC’s February enforcement advisory described earlier Kalshi disciplinary cases involving a political candidate trading on his own candidacy and a YouTube editor trading contracts tied to videos. The agency said exchanges have an independent duty to maintain audit trails, conduct surveillance and enforce trading rules, while the CFTC retains authority to investigate and prosecute violations on those exchanges.