As the year draws to a close, the prospects for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market remain cautiously optimistic. Nevertheless, some experts foresee a potential bullish turnaround for investors in 2026.
Following a prolonged decline from its October 6 peak of $126,080, Bitcoin found stability near $84,000 by November 22, indicating that selling pressure had eased. The relative strength index (RSI), which gauges momentum in asset prices, fell below the oversold threshold of 30.
This occurrence has taken place five times since 2023—and each instance was followed by an upward trend in Bitcoin’s price. Should this pattern hold true again, Julien Bittel—head of macro research at Global Macro Investor—predicts that Bitcoin could surge to $170,000 within three months.
Bittel remarked on Twitter that unless one believes in the continuation of the four-year cycle (which he does not), this chart is expected to remain relevant over time.
Many have requested an update on this chart; here it is for those interested.
It illustrates Bitcoin’s average price movement after RSI dips below 30 at t=0.
So far, it has been remarkably accurate.
Unless you… pic.twitter.com/FRLt5w7oFT
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) December 17, 2025
Other market analysts advise prudence and view these historical trends as supportive signals rather than definitive forecasts. Dean Chen from Bitunix explained to Decrypt that while such patterns provide insight into market sentiment and behavior following capitulation phases indicated by low RSI readings—which often lead to stabilization—they do not guarantee identical outcomes every time.
Chen emphasized that predicting a rise toward $170K heavily depends on broader economic factors like liquidity conditions, monetary policies, and overall risk appetite among investors.
A longer-term historical perspective also suggests recovery potential: over more than ten years of data show every down year for Bitcoin tends to be succeeded by an uptrend. Given that Bitcoin’s performance so far this year is down approximately five percent—a negative finish for 2025 would traditionally set up favorable conditions heading into next year.
Chen clarified this reflects cyclical mean reversion rather than assured rapid gains; thus while medium- and long-term outlooks appear constructive based on these cycles and fundamentals—the short term may still experience volatility requiring further confirmation before sustained growth occurs.
Currently trading around $88,000 with a modest gain of about +0.7% over the last day according to CoinGecko data, sentiment remains measured.
The prediction platform Myriad—which belongs to Decrypt’s parent company Dastan—shows users assigning roughly a 61% probability that BTC will reach $100,000 before dropping back below $69,000.
Emphasizing Core Fundamentals
Apart from past price patterns, a number of fundamental elements combined with institutional participation point toward strong prospects ahead.
“Recent weakness can largely be attributed to two temporary factors,” Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, <i told Decrypt previously:“”—sellers anticipating effects tied to bitcoin’s four-year cycle plus residual concerns stemming from October’s leverage unwind.””
“Once these issues subside,” says Hougan,””a robust rally should follow.””
He describes current macroeconomic circumstances as “a win-win scenario,” where both economic resilience or stimulus-driven weakness could serve as catalysts supporting crypto markets.
Institutional adoption represents perhaps the most tangible bullish factor moving forward . Hougan characterizes ETF developments as “”exceptionally positive,” noting how trillions under management across major financial institutions are now able access crypto assets directly , leading him predict record inflows during <strong> ;2026</strong> ;.
This influx might also encourage cryptocurrencies’ decoupling from traditional stock markets . According To Hougan , “”crypto-specific drivers” such as tokenization innovations along with growing institutional involvement will increasingly dictate pricing dynamics — signaling maturation towards independent fundamental valuation models .